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Minyan Mailbag



Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.


Having just completed your morning missive, you should in all fairness look at the other side of the political impact of positive developments and how the markets would respond in the perception vs. reality trade. Recent headlines and stories from the NYT, Debka, Stratfor, and others describe evidence (documents, personnel describe links between al-Queda and Iraq). The 1st Armored division has defeated al-Sadr's forces and removed his ability to conduct offensive operations, he declared a truce and told his fighters to disband. Elections are not won in June. What if further evidence emerges concerning WMD or al-Queda links? How about further stability in Iraq? Have you noticed that Israel has won the war in the latest Intifada and the impact that has had in the hegemony of the Middle East?

The growth of democracy (or anything other than despotic leadership) takes time. What if the pieces fall into place? Do not overlook the man who has defeated the Taliban and removed the terrorist training bases. What of the positive infrastructure that has been resurrected in Iraq (schools, hospitals, power grids, jobs, stable currency) and the resumption of the free flow of oil from Iraq into the world markets again? Not all is forlorn or lost in Iraq regardless of the selective media coverage. This does not eliminate the juiced global economy as you point out, however not all of us view the world through the prism of Michael Moore's camera lens. What if?

Minyan Tobias

Minyan Tobias,

The purpose of my morning missive was to try and identify a potential disconnect between perception and reality. The eight year lows in the volatility (fear) index support your above mentioned assertion and paint a rosy picture of the global (financial landscape). As always, my intent was to provoke thought and establish a frame of reference that Minyans may not have thought of. Regardless, I welcome your input as we always want to see both sides of every trade. And now we do.

Have a great weekend,



No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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