Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.
Having just completed your morning missive, you should in all fairness look at the other side of the political impact of positive developments and how the markets would respond in the perception vs. reality trade. Recent headlines and stories from the NYT, Debka, Stratfor, and others describe evidence (documents, personnel describe links between al-Queda and Iraq). The 1st Armored division has defeated al-Sadr's forces and removed his ability to conduct offensive operations, he declared a truce and told his fighters to disband. Elections are not won in June. What if further evidence emerges concerning WMD or al-Queda links? How about further stability in Iraq? Have you noticed that Israel has won the war in the latest Intifada and the impact that has had in the hegemony of the Middle East?
The growth of democracy (or anything other than despotic leadership) takes time. What if the pieces fall into place? Do not overlook the man who has defeated the Taliban and removed the terrorist training bases. What of the positive infrastructure that has been resurrected in Iraq (schools, hospitals, power grids, jobs, stable currency) and the resumption of the free flow of oil from Iraq into the world markets again? Not all is forlorn or lost in Iraq regardless of the selective media coverage. This does not eliminate the juiced global economy as you point out, however not all of us view the world through the prism of Michael Moore's camera lens. What if?
The purpose of my morning missive was to try and identify a potential disconnect between perception and reality. The eight year lows in the volatility (fear) index support your above mentioned assertion and paint a rosy picture of the global (financial landscape). As always, my intent was to provoke thought and establish a frame of reference that Minyans may not have thought of. Regardless, I welcome your input as we always want to see both sides of every trade. And now we do.
Have a great weekend,
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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