It's a Chopper, Baby!
May peace be with you!
The Elmer briss passes with a 25 bip snip the order of the day. While active traders whip their risk about, the gorillas are likely stepping into meetings to determine their next course of action. The takeaway from the text was two-sided: There was cautious optimism regarding a "firming in spending, markedly improved financial conditions and stability in labor and product markets" but, at the end of the day, "the economy has yet to exhibit sustainable growth."
As discussed, I don't think the magnitude of the cut is of particular importance. The Fed is committed to a low-rate environment and it's obvious that they'll do what they can to keep it that way. Reading between the lines, they're clearly unnerved by the prospect of deflation (or, as they put it "unwelcome declines in inflation") and the failure of the second-half recovery to emerge is troublesome. Hey, we've still got five days left -- maybe we're jumping the gun!
While the market swings back and forth, my eyes continue to migrate towards two things. First, there is a rather nasty looking head and shoulders pattern on the 21-day chart of the S&P and NDX. If (big if) S&P 973 and NDX 1190ish are breached, there could be some dandruff in our midst. With that said, the minty breadth barely budges (on the test lower) and that traction must be noted (and respected).
Beeks will swing by tomorrow with the GDP (expected at 1.9%), personal consumption (expected at 2%), initial jobless claims (expected at 415,000) and the help wanted index (expected at 36). With today's decision out of the way, the focus will again search for discernable signs of economic validation. I don't believe these numbers matter as much as the unseen agendas associated with quarter-end but they're surely a piece of the ever-changing puzzle that is the Minx.
That's about it, my friends, as we wade through another session of flickering ticks. I haven't exactly had the hottest hand this quarter and, while I'm psyched to play the back nine, you'll never find any "ducks" in Minyanville. Adversity, and how we respond to it, defines character and that constant evolution is a part of life. All we can do is our very best, trudge ahead with our lessons in tow and be good to others while better to ourselves. In the immortal words of Snoop Dogg, "It's aaaaaall good."
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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