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Random Thoughts


Enjoy the Maryland vibes and say hi to my terrapin friends!

  • The acne in the piggies (BKX 100) and the techies (COMP 2100) remains nestled overhead after the shake faked the loose hands from the Matador Tree.

  • A penny saved is a penny earned.

  • For what it's worth-and definitely not advice-I think the General Motors (GM) post-debt-punt equity rally will go down in the annals of Wall Street as one of the nostiest head-fakes in recent memory. In other words, I think the junk yard dog will come back to bite those who've deferred to the upside price action.

  • Freaky Friday standouts of note include the semis (-1%), the small caps (-70 bips in front of the rebalancing), Google (+1%), the XAU (+1.6%), General Electric (hanging tough), Pledge Farl (pink shirt), the dollar index (-50 bips) and the clock on the wall (tick tock).

  • "The SPX and NDX suffered their first days of distribution in weeks, as oil closed in on an intra-day high of 60.02 in the August or near-month contract. One resoundingly bullish factor of the market has been its ability to shrug off persistently high energy prices, but $60 oil appears to be the market's wooden stake. It looks likely that the SPX will test the 50-day at 1181, and while some measures such as liquidity, volatility and Transports are working against this market, other indications such as trend and even some sentiment measures remain in the bulls camp." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf.

  • Can anyone spot the common denominator between the Cruise Control and the Critter Mission?

  • The best man for the job.

  • Please be aware that we'll have thin and thinner liquidity as we edge towards the weekend. Chicago traders will likely sneak to the Cubbie-Sox game, the Yanks and Mets tee it up at the stadium tonight, it's another snazzy weekend in the northeast and, for my part, I'll be scooting to surprise my 5-year old nephew for his birthday in Baltimore.

  • "We have an irresponsible, reckless monetary policy that is keeping real interest rates artificially low and we're fooling asset-dependent American consumers to keep on binge-buying. Don't give the Fed all this credit. They have taken rates from negative to zero' in real, inflation-adjusted terms. They're still providing a lot of candy for the carry trade and all these other speculative activities that are keeping the U.S. economy afloat artificially.'' -- Morgan Stanley Economist Stephen Roach, Bloomberg, June 21st 2005

  • Yeah. What Succo said!

  • Look at me, the CRB!

  • Last night, while enjoying some afternoon vibes with close friends atop the Peninsula Hotel, Professor Succo and I were talking about the FedEx (FDX) shot across the bow. If the inability to pass (higher energy) costs through to the consumer becomes a trend, stagflation chatter will surely uptick.

  • See some old friends-it's good for the soul!

  • With Duncan playing so poorly in the first half and the Spurs keeping it close, you had to figure that the big guy would step it up and come through. Congrats to a gritty and gutty San Antonio squad for winning as a team and taking home the trophy.

  • "Public support in my state is turning," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. "People are beginning to question. And I don't think it's a blip on the radar screen. We have a chronic problem on our hands."

  • Speaking of Generals...We flagged General Electric (GE) early yesterday as it started to crack the 200-day and the rest of the day failed to bring good things to life. This stock should remain on ye radar as a trading tell

  • Roboqueen!

  • Gold vibes.

  • San Fran Minyanfest. Tuesday, July 5th. Perry's. Macke. Brown blazer. Come join!

  • Would you live your life any different if you knew you had six months to live? Well, we're all terminal-it's the cycle of life-so live each day like it's your last and make sure you make it count.

  • Have a great weekend

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