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Technical View - NYB



Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.


New York Community Bancorp (NYB:NYSE) has traced out a clean impulsive "5" wave decline from its March 1st 2004 high, with the final 5th wave coming on diverging daily and hourly momentum as well as several daily and hourly Demark trend exhaustion indicators. This impulsive move down from the 3/1 all-time high for NYB suggests a much larger degree decline is unfolding in this stock that could eventually take it to $13-$16 area. Before that next large impulsive wave down begins, however, the 3 ½ month 47% decline that has ensued since the 3/1 high in NYB should be "corrected" in the form of a 3 wave bounce to upper Fibonacci resistance to roughly the $25-$29 area and could take 6-10 weeks to complete.

Therefore, the technical setup appears to indicate a potential bounce and with a re-evaluation if prices reach the 25-29 area in a corrective form. The very short term suggests that yesterday's $18.93 low may have been the final 5th wave to end the impulsive move down from 3/1 as prices bounced impulsively from that level and have already traced out a 5 wave move up.

A move through yesterday's low at $18.93 would alter the technical picture suggesting a bounce. Therefore, if trade does move below $18.93 at anytime, the analysis suggests standing aside and awaiting the formation of a final 5th wave low somewhere slightly below that level.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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