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Random Thoughts


Don't go celebrating too much tonight, Toddo!

  • This actually explains a lot!

  • Please add NASDAQ 2100-the Comp, not the NDX-as it tickles the 2100 level. If it can poke through and trigger fresh acne, Hoofy will have another feather in his headdress.

  • "While i am not saying there can't be a minor pickup in volatility...a little perspective: From 1/22/92 to 2/1/96 there were 1019 trading days. Only 24 of those saw an above avg. level of Bollinger Band spread as a % of SPX price.

    In English, only 24/1019 had above average volatility for 4 years. This indicator broke below historical average on 6/26/03 or 502 trading days ago. That puts us half way through last cycle of lower than avg. volatility by this measure."

    -- Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities (vibes shared on the Buzz)

  • Nice Call Mr. Pickins!

  • There's no crying-or cabbage-in baseball!

  • "Tony's observations on index volatility are correct. Index volatility is driven by systemic events that cause the correlation between stocks to increase. 1998 is an example where large fluctuations in all asset classes drove the correlation between stocks up and we saw violent swings in the market itself. But there is another kind of related volatility that I always comment on: individual stock volatility. Over the last 80 years the average volatility of an average stock has been 20%. We are seeing option prices and actual volatilities much lower than that on many stocks. And then you get a FedEx (FDX) where the stock moves significantly because of the compression built up in the cheap options and the fact that traders are over-exposed because fo the previous very low volatility. Volatility on individual stocks is very low with a potential to increase dramatically. Index volatility is more driven by systemic events that will increase the correlation between stocks. I have no guess as to the next event." -- Professor Succo on the Buzz and in response to Snoop's sniff.

  • Please don't anticipate the anticipators when it comes to technical levels.

  • I don't watch that show but I've seen this movie before.

  • I think Macke should wear this outfit next time he hosts Squawk Box!

  • Please keep General Electric (GE) on ye radar as it just broke the 200-day moving average and is eyeing a very important level at $35. As this monster is 3.4% of the S&P, it should stay in front of ya.

  • There's nuttin' better than game 7's. What's my best guess? I like both squads but I gotta go with the Spurs at home.

  • The trannies are trippy as they slip and dip through TRAN 3500. We're now a good 400 points from the March high and that's worthy of a non-confirmation nose scrunch. On the flip side, keep in mind the point that Jason Goepfert made if you're keying off the sector.

  • I often opine that the Minyan family is analogous to the concentric circles inside a tree trunk. Keeping this bite consistent with that bark, Minyans in the Mountains will be the epicenter of numerous circles of trust. It's hard to explain the mojo that permeated last year's event and Ojai is gonna build on that energy. If you're on the fence, hop on into our world-I promise that you won't be disappointed!

  • Pump it up, pump it up, pump it up!

  • Note the jiggy action in gold as it flickers through the top of the six month pennant formation. $445 is the March high for those keeping score at home.

  • "One of the problems with market calls, particularly when not using a regimented set of rules based on discipline, is anticipating a signal that never materializes. With the 10-yr yield contracting by 10-bps yesterday to 3.94% we begin to get more nervous about missing the trend, or big picture, while trying to play the short-term reversal signal that was set on June 3rd. One problem with "obvious calls" is that the next call tends to be far less obvious. Below 3.82% and we are forced, by default, back into the bond bull camp. Granted we preferred the idea of relieving bond holders of their positions on a mean reverting move back to 4.20-.30%, but one thing we find hopeless in the market is trying to "make" the market play our game or follow some preconceived pattern." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • For those Minyans attending the San Fran Minyanfest, we'll be gagglin' at Perry's on July 5th at 6:00 pm.

  • Julie Atkins, 38, of Derby, England, featured in a May BBC TV documentary on childbirth because her three daughters gave birth last year at, respectively, ages 12, 14 and 16, told the Sunday Mercury newspaper: "I don't care what people say about me. I blame the schools. Sex education for young girls should be better." (BBC News)

  • "The 1560 level is pretty important on the Nasdaq-100 (NDX). A move to 1570 breaks a spread triple top and would likely force additional capitulation from those positioned short. Is that necessary before we get a more meaningful move lower and a possible resumption of the larger structural down trend?" -- Pepe Depew on the Buzz

  • $90,000,000 doesn't buy you what it used to!

  • "Anyone who thinks there will be deflation does not understand twenty-first-century central banking. There may well be a deflationary collapse later, but before that happens the government will print money until the world runs out of trees." - Jim Rogers, Adventure Capitalist (2003)

  • Many humble snaps to the Minyanship on the birthday wishes. I'll tell you the truth-I step into the 'Ville each day and lose myself in this metaphorical world. It's surreal, at times...almost like I'm watching a movie. And then I'm reminded of the many friendships I've formed through this venue and feel truly humbled and blessed. THANK YOU for sharing this fantastic voyage with me-I'm certain that the best is yet to come!

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