By Todd Harrison Jun 23, 2004 2:28 pm
Dear Mr. Fantasy play us a tune
Something to make us all happy
Do anything take us out of this gloom
Sing a song, play guitar, make it snappy
The more things change, the more they stay the same--quite literally! The Minx is lulling the city of critters to sleep with her soft sideways slither and it's frustrating the sprinkles outa both camps. I pinged a vibe on the Buzz musing that both a ramp (higher) or melt (lower) would seem "obvious" with the benefit of hindsight. Indeed, with ducks quacking on both sides of the fence, price will likely emerge as the ultimate arbiter.
An uber-true definition of a bear market is an environment where nobody coins the shekels. That contrasts with the textbook definition--up or down 20%--but it remains the modus operandi. The bears got roasted into 2000, the bulls got maimed shortly thereafter and so goes the path of maximum frustration. There will surely be opportunities for those who are patient and disciplined but the "easy trade" is a thing of the past. Now we have massive capacity, crowded trades, diminishing returns and alotta unnecessary aggravation.
Be that as it may, there is no excuse for sloppiness and we must continue to be diligent in our efforts. That consistency will differentiate returns and, ultimately, weed out the lion's share of the newbie funds. Case in point--the Minx has been 'dead money' for over a month but the pressers and guessers (who buy up and sell down) have suffered a painful death by 1000 paper cuts. And at the end of the day (range), legitimate two-sided risks remain.
Collins just asked me what I thought here and I told him that Hoofy prolly retains the benefit of the doubt. Why? Unmotivated sellers, performance anxiety, the trannies and the ability of the Minx to work off the overbought condition as a function of time rather than price. I'm keeping my cards close to the vest--trap door potential increases with each passing capitulatory purge (volatility)--but perception is reality. If the bovine can break free of these technical constraints, the buyers will likely emerge at higher levels.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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