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Random Thoughts


I haven't jumped out of a cake in years!


  • Snoop Tone is settling into his new digs and will be back in our Minyan graces shortly.

  • Patience and discipline are easier said than done.

  • The reaction to this morning's biotech deal reminded me of U.S. Robotics for some reason.

  • There's low-level chatter that Saddam is negotiating terms of surrender. Obviously, there's no way to confirm this, but it's getting around.

  • 1180 is to NDX as 975 is to the S&P.

  • I've seen the first slug of those Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) calls (bought last week) being sold.

  • For some reason, 34 sounds a LOT older than 33.

  • Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE) has decent support around the 80 level. Biogen (BGEN:Nasdaq) has similar support at 40.

  • Mr. Succo continues to impress with his writing efforts.

  • How come you're always too short (long) when the market goes up (down) and never short (long) enough when the market sells off (rallies)?

  • The five CDs currently in my car: Doggystyle (Snoop Dogg), Led Zeppelin IV, Grateful Dead (Red Rocks), Ibiza tunes (collection) and Norah Jones (hey, it was raining!).

  • Since last Tuesday/Wednesday's top, we've had a handful of dips that were bought by the bulls. When do they start schvitzing and punting?

  • Is this the beginning of the much-anticipated rollover? It makes sense from a "trapped bulls" standpoint, but it's too early to write the equity epitaph. Am I wavering on my big-picture bear thesis? Not a shot -- I still believe that this market is a disaster waiting to happen. I'm just not sure if it's gonna be a car crash (fast) or cancer (slow and painful).

  • NDX 1200 should provide the first upside resistance if Snapper peeks his beak out.

  • It's amazing how different life is today vs. two years ago.

  • I, for one, think Fokker did a fine job this morning. So you know, the young lad will be let out of his cage next week and take a much deserved week off. And no, we're not vacationing together.

  • Does anybody else confuse Bill Pullman with Bill Paxton?

  • Oops, somebody just turned around and bought 30,000 of those Microsoft August 27.5 calls. Duke & Duke must be pumped!

  • I thought there were blanks in that gun!

  • I'm watching the brokers, breadth, biotechs and semis for signs of traction when the futures lift. If they lift with the rally try, it's constructive. If they act "heavy," it doesn't bode well for today's tape.

  • OSX 92 and PPH 80 were breakout levels. Watch them on the pullbacks as potential area of support.

  • The breadth is still worse than 3:1 negative.

  • Thank you to all ye faithful Minyans for the birthday wishes -- they're humbly appreciated. The best gift you can possibly give is to simply spread the word of Minyanville as far and as wide as possible. We rely on you guys and appreciate any efforts in this regard.

  • Gold is lower with the markets. Weird.

  • What do I think Elmer does on Wednesday? 25 bips. How do we game it? I'm not sure we can. A lot will depend on the price action INTO the announcement.

  • The BKX and S&P are starting to flirt with very important support levels. If they breach 'em, we could see the first signs of... well, "non-complacency."
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