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The Fokker Chronicles



Welcome to the first and quite possibly the last edition of the Fokker Chronicles. Special thanks to Charlotte-Anne for the support and for helping me to get this post up and running.

World Markets

Europe traded mostly weaker ahead of the U.S. market open. The London FTSE and German DAX were slightly lower in quiet trading. The Japanese Nikkei finished up slightly with a 0.18% gain, while the Hang Seng closed markedly lower, down 1.97%, despite World Health Organization declaring Hong Kong SARS-free.

Heads Up

Fed watch for Wednesday. Consumer Confidence tomorrow. GDP number released midweek and Michigan sentiment out on Friday. Goldman Sachs(GS:NYSE), and EMC (EMC:NYSE) report earnings later in the week.

Brokerage Chatter

Kohl's (KSSNYSE) had its same-store sales estimate for June and its earnings numbers lowered at Solomon Brothers below the street consensus for the second quarter, while Bear Stearns, after meeting with management, cited sluggish June sales but remained positive on its outlook for Kohl's longer term.

Soundview is taking numbers and price targets up for both KLA Tencor (KLAC:NASD) and Lam Research (LRCX:NASD). JetBlue Airways (JBLU:NASD) was downgraded at Bear Stearns based on valuation. Lehman Brothers upgraded Advanced Fibre (AFCI:NASD). Morgan Stanley is raised its price target on Altria (MO:NYSE) from $48 to $62, and cut R.J. Reynolds (RJR:NYSE) from equal weight to underweight. Deere & Co (DE:NYSE) was upgraded at Merrill Lynch and Sanmina (SANM:NASD) received some negative chatter over at RBC. General Dynamics (GD:NYSE) had its second quarter and full year numbers for 2003 reduced at Solomon, citing weakness in its private jet business. Prudential downgraded Nautica (NAUT:NASD). KB Home (KBH) had its numbers raised at Credit Suisse First Boston. First Boston also lowered estimates for Chubb (CB:NYSE). Electronic Data Systems (EDS:NYSE) had its rating cut at S&P and there is chatter that Moody's might cut EDS as well.

UBS Warburg is raising its price targets on Gold for full year 2003, 2004 and 2005. Estimates go from $350 to $358 for 2003, from $356 to $375 in 2004 and $366 to $380 in 2005. UBS cites a weakening U.S. dollar and the actions of speculators moving from a net short position in 2001 to a large net long in 2003. Estimates and price targets have also been raised for Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE), Gold Corp. (GG:NYSE), and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM:NYSE), Meridian Gold (MDG:NYSE), Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE) and Placer Dome (PDG:NYSE).

Jeffries upgraded Forest Lab (FRX:NYSE) from hold to buy. Merrill Lynch upgraded PG&E (PCG:NYSE) from neutral to buy.

Financial Headlines


Biogen (BGEN:NASD) and IDEC Pharm (IDPH) announced a merger agreement this morning. The deal would value BGEN at about $44.81 per share, compared to its Friday close of $43.80. Following the announcement, BGEN warned and guided its second quarter below consensus.

Nokia (NOK:NYSE) received some negative press in an article from Sunday's UK Times. Rumors have been circulating out of London that PeopleSoft (PSFT:NASD) may be searching for a "white knight" to rescue it from Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq), which added some gains to the stock early this morning.

DRAM prices were up 1% following a negative article from Economic Daily saying some producers will be dumping product into spot market near the month/quarter end; this might put some pressure on a handful of semi names.

International Business Machines (IBM:NYSE) is being sued by Cable and Wireless for $200 million over allegations it overcharged.

Heineken is citing a weak outlook in Europe which could put pressure on U.S. beer maker Anheuser-Busch (BUD:NYSE). An article in the New York Times on Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) was critical of the company's accounting, saying Fannie would have seen a large loss last year, but was hidden by its a complex accounting system which also hides the true performance of their underlying business.


Walgreen (WAG:NYSE) reported numbers in line this morning. Apollo Group (APOL:NASD) beat their estimates by 4 cents and guided its fourth quarter in line. Tenet Health (THC:NYSE) guided its second quarter and second half numbers below consensus estimates.

Around the world in 80 ticks

The Sunday Telegraph reports that Saddam survived the war and is hiding, according to one of his captured aides. The BBC is reporting that Greek authorities are investigating a ship carrying 680 tons of explosives made out of ammonia dynamite which was seized as it sailed for Africa. This past Sunday on NBC News, a senior Pentagon official was cited saying U.S. forces were conducting DNA tests to determine whether Saddam Hussein or his two sons were among the Iraqis killed in a U.S. attack last week.

Last, but not least, please help me wish the King Minyan, Toddo, a very happy birthday. Enjoy those furry, bright orange, Syracuse slippers I got for you buddy. Now this doesn't mean you should continue wearing that Hugh Hefner robe around the office, but I hope they bring you(us) some positive mojo.

Thick skin today.


position in GS, BGEN, FNM
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