Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Close Down
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Earnings Report - MV News
Oracle (ORCL) reports Q4 EPS of $0.24 vs. $0.20 cons on revs of $4.85 bln vs. $3.88 bln. Q4 earnings of $0.29 excluding items.
Classic - Kevin Depew - 2:35 PM
- Speaking of the 10-year, the .5x3 PnF chart of the TNX (the yield index) has a count to 5.57%, for what it's worth.
- Meanwhile, last week we noted the DeMark sell completions, suggesting probabilities favor 10-year yields move lower first, back toward the 4.8% level. Above 5.26% and those probabilties would change.
- Weird, we haven't seen the Carson Palmer Cornhole Classic promoted as heavily as we might have expected.
So far, so boring - Fil Zucchi - 1:36 PM
The Minx is following the script outlined this morning and doing a whole lot of nothing today. It would not surprise me if today ends up being a mirror image of yesterday, setting up tomorrow to be a mirror image of today. What I am trying to figure out is whether the daily pennant forming in the S&P 500 (SPX) daily chart will beat out what looks like a "value-building" process below multi-year support. The answer to that question is where the next good chunk of dough will be made.
With oscillators in neutral areas I'm open to all types of guesses.
Whiplash smile - David Miller - 12:53 PM
- Are we having fun yet? The "cosmetic" breadth in the NBI yesterday has broken down to another negative breadth day. 74 up, 5 flat, 95 down. Only 28 of those 74 are up over a percent. 56 of the downers are down over 1%.
- It's zero day for Merck's (MRK) Zocor as the patent expires. Color me impressed that Merck has decided to aggressively compete with the generic companies. The bargains they have cut with some insurers to pass along price savings into patient co-pays is brilliant.
- Human transmission of bird flu has been seen in Thailand. That's nothing new, of course. The strain still hasn't mutated.
- Big gains in short interest again? No surprise there. If you added up all the equity and commodity short interest, would anyone start thinking perhaps it was a bubble worth watching? In my experience, almost nobody seems to care.
- Do you invest in online gambling companies? Did you know gambling online is now a Class 'C' felony in Washington State? You can drive drunk over and over and not trigger a felony conviction, but you can't wager a few sheckles in a poker game on your computer. How stupid is that?
Derivatives Derivatives - Adam Warner - 10:58 AM
How volatile is....um.....volatility? Check out this VIX options chart. The yellow line represents the implied volatility of the VIX options, the blue the 30 day historical volatility of the VIX itself. So if the VIX were a stock, it would be moving at about a 180 volatility clip. Tbe previous 52 week high for this measure barely cracks through 100.
I can only go back 5 years on this, and in fact this is the most volatile that volatility has been over that timeframe.
And yes, I know I said the word "Volatility" every other word.
You have potential - Rod David - 10:52 AM
The potential to actually touch last Thursday's high remained alive so long as pullbacks held any test of SPX 1251 (ESu 1261'00) as support. That's where Wednesday's pullback reached, and this morning's open is only making matters worse –6 points worse through the first hour.
It would help to complete the bounce if S&Ps were to test last Thursday's high a little more thoroughly before reversing down, something along the lines of the Dow and NDX bounce peaks yesterday. Regardless, the bigger picture hasn't changed: we're probably already in a bear market. And being a bear market, bounces can suddenly end lower and sooner than the same pattern would during a bull market.
There is potential for one more bounce from SPX 1244-1245 (ESu 1254'00-1255'00). Any lower past this morning can be blamed on the bear market.
Oh when the shorts go marching in.... - Phil Erlanger - 9:40 AM
Short interest positions for the monthly period ending June 12th trade date and June 15th settlement date not yet closed out at the Big Board, including all issues, rose to 9,087,309,158 from 8,613,110,732 in mid-May. The absolute increase was 5.50%.
Dedicated short sellers made 5.39% in May, as reported by www.hedgeindex.com, and ytd are down -1.50%. Looks like short sellers are becoming more brazen as they continue to put their toes back in the water and press their bets.
Keep your head above water - Laurie McGuirk - 8:56 AM
I'm sure everyone noticed that there was no London Gold Fix below $567.50 on the whole "collapse." What does that tell us? The physical demand down here has made a statement, IMO. It's gonna take a heap of physical metals to take us down below $550 and it cant possibly stay there long.
Pullbacks will be deeper yet shorter in duration than what we have been accustomed to over the past five years - we have mentioned many times previously.
Position in gold
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