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Random Thoughts

By

Don't mind me, I'm just slithering along

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  • We shared some vibes on the housing bubble from Didier Sornette yesterday and they're worth revisiting. Some Minyans may recall that Didier had some phenomenal observations on the equity echo-bubble but pulled his "pop" when his work no longer aligned. While the jury remains out, there's a lesson in that "academic discipline."

  • Tongue lashing!

  • When does the housing bubble burst? The "easy" answer is when rates rise and squeeze the ARMS behind the back of the consumer.

  • "Just taking another look at the SMH range I noted earlier, and sharing the thought process. There have been six other spikes lower in the 20-day range of SMH since 2003. Here they are, along with the directional move and number of days that move took subsequent to the narrowing of the range: 08/04/03... moved 9% in the next 4 days, 03/01/04...moved 5% in 5 days, 06/16/04...moved 3% in 1 day, 01/04/05...moved 7% in 13 days, 03/14/05...moved 5% in 6 days, 04/12/05...moved 7% in 3 days. Each of those moves happened to be to the downside, which is notable, and more likely to make a straddle/strangle position profitable in my experience. With that type of strategy, you don't care which way the underlying moves, just so it moves, but with a downside stab, you get the "double-whammy" of increased implied volatility. Again, I share this with the sole intent of opening up how I approach various trading scenarios in the hope it broadens the perspective of our fellow Minyans." -- Jason Goepfert on the Buzz.

  • China Cat Sunflower Stash!

  • Honeydew!

  • T-Minus five hours till Minyan Karaoke!

  • I finally got a television in my office but I've muted the sound. Listening to all the real estate success stories is skewing

  • NYSE breadth, which opened snazzy, has edged back to a more balanced posture despite the fixed income jig. This tea leaf is an uber-important tell and I'll be watching to see how quickly it improves (on a Snapper) or deteriorates (with a Thumper).

  • Steel cage match?

  • More middle class-or lack thereof-debate.

  • Happy Birthday Professor John Succo!

  • The weekly census rolled through the 'Ville and found that Matador occupancy increased to 53.9 (from 52.7) and Red Dye residents dropped to 20.2 (from 20.4).

  • Tuesday. July 5th. San Fran Minyanfest. Please let us know if you wanna gaggle with the critters.

  • The S&P:VIX ratio is at an all-time high. Meaning...lotsa risk is associated with any potential reward.

  • Cane and Able!

  • Crude is off 1.5% on the back of the inventory data. Now, if we could only figure out if that's bullish (takes pressure off the consumer) or bearish (the other side of a rising tide), we'd be ahead of the game.

  • What I DO know is that BKX 100 is a monster truck level. A push through there will be a spark in the dark.

  • Fear is the opposite of love. My grandfather always used to tell me "don't run scared" and, as usual, he was spot on.

  • Fare ye well on the other side of the Hump-we're half way home Minyans!


    R.P.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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