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Random Thoughts

By

Don't mind me, I'm just slithering along

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  • We shared some vibes on the housing bubble from Didier Sornette yesterday and they're worth revisiting. Some Minyans may recall that Didier had some phenomenal observations on the equity echo-bubble but pulled his "pop" when his work no longer aligned. While the jury remains out, there's a lesson in that "academic discipline."

  • Tongue lashing!

  • When does the housing bubble burst? The "easy" answer is when rates rise and squeeze the ARMS behind the back of the consumer.

  • "Just taking another look at the SMH range I noted earlier, and sharing the thought process. There have been six other spikes lower in the 20-day range of SMH since 2003. Here they are, along with the directional move and number of days that move took subsequent to the narrowing of the range: 08/04/03... moved 9% in the next 4 days, 03/01/04...moved 5% in 5 days, 06/16/04...moved 3% in 1 day, 01/04/05...moved 7% in 13 days, 03/14/05...moved 5% in 6 days, 04/12/05...moved 7% in 3 days. Each of those moves happened to be to the downside, which is notable, and more likely to make a straddle/strangle position profitable in my experience. With that type of strategy, you don't care which way the underlying moves, just so it moves, but with a downside stab, you get the "double-whammy" of increased implied volatility. Again, I share this with the sole intent of opening up how I approach various trading scenarios in the hope it broadens the perspective of our fellow Minyans." -- Jason Goepfert on the Buzz.

  • China Cat Sunflower Stash!

  • Honeydew!

  • T-Minus five hours till Minyan Karaoke!

  • I finally got a television in my office but I've muted the sound. Listening to all the real estate success stories is skewing

  • NYSE breadth, which opened snazzy, has edged back to a more balanced posture despite the fixed income jig. This tea leaf is an uber-important tell and I'll be watching to see how quickly it improves (on a Snapper) or deteriorates (with a Thumper).

  • Steel cage match?

  • More middle class-or lack thereof-debate.

  • Happy Birthday Professor John Succo!

  • The weekly census rolled through the 'Ville and found that Matador occupancy increased to 53.9 (from 52.7) and Red Dye residents dropped to 20.2 (from 20.4).

  • Tuesday. July 5th. San Fran Minyanfest. Please let us know if you wanna gaggle with the critters.

  • The S&P:VIX ratio is at an all-time high. Meaning...lotsa risk is associated with any potential reward.

  • Cane and Able!

  • Crude is off 1.5% on the back of the inventory data. Now, if we could only figure out if that's bullish (takes pressure off the consumer) or bearish (the other side of a rising tide), we'd be ahead of the game.

  • What I DO know is that BKX 100 is a monster truck level. A push through there will be a spark in the dark.

  • Fear is the opposite of love. My grandfather always used to tell me "don't run scared" and, as usual, he was spot on.

  • Fare ye well on the other side of the Hump-we're half way home Minyans!


    R.P.
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