A Few Sidenotes
1. The two highest weighted stocks continue to outperform the SPX.
General Electric (GE: NYSE) and Microsoft (MSFT: NASD) have been much stronger than the SPX over the past seven days. In fact, General Electric is up more than 4% and Microsoft is up more than 7% while the SPX is lower. What happens to the SPX when GE and MSFT are higher by at least 4% over a 7 day period and the SPX closes lower for the same time frame? The table below shows there were just three occurrences. The performance is listed.
2. GE is up 7 days in a row.
While we're on the subject, it's worth noting that General Electric closed higher for the seventh consecutive day. Until yesterday, such a streak had only occurred eight times over the last fifteen years. The longest streak during that period was 10 days in December 1999. All other occurrences ended on the eighth day and the most recent occurrence was December 2003.
3. The month of June.
With just seven days left in the quarter, the SPX is up less than 1% for the month of June. In an earlier post, we noted that the month of June has produced the highest percentage of "up" months during a presidential election year. Although the SPX is still positive on the month, let's not get too complacent. With such light volume and narrow ranges, it seems most investors are relying more on the seasonal stats to take prices higher than actual buying.
There are two charts below. The bottom chart highlights the June trendline. The SPX closed just above that line on Monday. With trade below there, look for Hoofy to defend the May close (1120.68 SPX). The top chart is just a reminder of our analog on June 9 that compares the current SP futures high with the April high close. Does the same pattern suggest that June's high is already in place?
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