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Random Thoughts


Do bulls have the fire power to beat back the brazen bears?

  • We're "a ways away" from S&P 1260 (the 200-day) but I wanna toss it on ye radar. There will be sizable "buy stops" on the other side of that ride and given the proximity of quarter-end---and a pretty intense performance agenda on the Street--you get the sense that the bulls would like nothing more than to squeeze 'em hard into their quarterly letter. The question, quite naturally, is if they've got the fire power to beat back the brazen bears.

  • What can you say about Tom Petty? He is, without doubt, one of the ten best rockers of all time. Agree? Disagree? Tell US your top ten and we'll rock the results later!

  • Please keep an eye on the XBD as it flirts with its important level. That, coupled with breadth (3:1) and leadership (homies, Russell, energy, metals, financials) suggest a higher try still.

  • Hey now, the XAU (+3%) is putting in its (gasp) second strong session in a row (thus far). It is, so you know, punching, poking, prodding and pushing the 200-day as we speak. And, not to be forgotten, Gold is ticklin' the underbelly of the downtrend line that's been in place since the May top ($730ish)

  • Let's put our best Minyan foot forward and support our own Jeff Macke as he makes his little screen debut tonight. Fast Money will air at 8:00 EST tonight and we'll be rooting for the Lone Wolf. Man, what's next...a show about critters?

  • We tried a UNH schnitzel yesterday as a faithful Minyan spied some potentially bullish reverse dandruff. The "right shoulder," the level under which I've set my stop, is $43.50ish. I'm wary of trading "pure charts" but it's small, defined and beaten down like a Dallas Maverick..

  • Speaking of which, GREAT SEASON Mav's--you were fun to watch--but you ran into some hot Heat and Miami deserves some serious snaps for the four score!

  • I've done little to augment my posture since I nibbled (metals/energy) and shaved (piggy puts) late Monday.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey finds a dead heat, with both bullish and bearish sentiment coming in at 35.6%. Bullish sentiment fell from 38.7%, to another new low since around the market bottom in Oct '02 in which it fell to 28.4%. Bearish sentiment rose from 34.4% to the highest level since the same month when it registered 43.2%.

  • BKX 108, Russell 677 and XBD 205 remain levels of lore for the Hump Day chore.

  • FedEx is up chunk today on the heels of earnings. Nice eyes, Gil Martin!

  • Do you really believe that social acrimony isn't upticking and personal agendas are becoming a bit more commonplace?

  • The technical task at hand for the drill bits? Get the OSX back over the 200-day hump (194ish) and morph the recent slippage into a "false breakdown."

  • "The Turkish Lira is getting slammed this morning, making new move lows and breaking down versus the USD (and the EUR), as the move towards intensified risk profiling in emerging markets continues to build momentum. Today's downside acceleration in the Lira comes on the heels yesterday'sTurkish Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee meeting, in which the CB failed to meet the market's expectation for a rate hike. Perhaps more 'telling' is today's breakdown and deep decline in the South African Rand versus both the USD and EUR. Indeed, the long-term technical picture in both the Rand and the Lira have turned decidedly negative, following the path laid out by the Icelandic Krona, which also remains under selling pressure following the release today of a larger than expected rise in wage inflation. We will cover these currencies later today in a special Minyanville technical focus, but for now, remember to Keep Your Eye on the Ball, as intensifying disinflation in top-performing emerging market currencies is a macro-sign suggesting that ALL monetarily reflated markets are at increasing risk of striking out." Greg Weldon on this morning's Buzz

  • Yes, Minyans, there are some small glitches left in Buzz 2.0. You know me well enough to know that nobody at MVHQ will rest until we're tip top, schnitz hot and second to none (sir).

  • President Fish is dragging me--kicking and screaming--to a midtown mindmeld this morning. It won't be an all-day affair (some of us have to work) but I will be out of the 'Ville from 10:30 till about 1:00. I've known Kevin a long time, from when he was a little boy, and now as a man. He's good peeps.

  • Minyan Mailbag:

  • Toddo…I know I'm not (currently) paying your bills, so excuse my stealing your eyes and mind for this question…but…I "see" your deflation forces. What doesn't add up is the metals love affair. Deflation would seemingly kill global growth..and subsequent demand for those very metals…just as more mines produce more of the same. I've never caught the gold bug…but I respect the respect it "gets" vis-a-vis currency meltage. Color me confused. (I understand if you don't have time to respond to me personally..but many Minyans might ponder the same.) Peace. Minyan Scott

    MS- If the Phantom arrives, metals aren't immune---which is why i have them 'pared' against short side risk. Deflation is a serious Debbie Downer for any secular growth story. IF--and that's the zillion dollar IF--it arrives, it'll be a painful process across the board. What I'm trying to do (through trading) and communicate (through writing) is balance the probability spectrum in such a way that I can A) preserve capital and B) produce returns. Hope this helps.

  • What are grape leaves?
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