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Random Thoughts


There's nothing wrong with a San Fran Minyanfest on OUR time!

  • The Oakland Raider! We're mappin' out some travel plans at MVHQ and it's looking like the critters and I will be taking a left coast swing the week after July 4th. As such, and consistent with the Minyan spirit, Macke and I are discussing a San Fran Minyanfest for Tuesday July 5th! If you're in the Bay Area and would like to join us for some schnitzel and good vibes, please let us know so we can plan accordingly. Thankyoueversomuch!

  • Thoughts on the housing bubble from Didier Sornette.

  • This morning, right before the opening, we gave Pledge "Fa" the opportunity to earn his "R" back (after a series of upsetting mistakes yesterday). He stepped atop the coffee table, cleared his throat and sang "I'm every woman" from soup to nuts. The construction workers down the hall were treated to some impromptu entertainment.

  • Muskrat love?

  • Raaaaaid! Steppin' out at the Roach Motel.

  • Boo is gonna make an initial stand near the '05 S&P highs with the tape so extended. The question, of course, is what type of downside motivation he can muster.

  • "The various volatility measures we use, with the exception of Average True Range, are at 2 standard deviation lows, a condition that often accompanies complacent attitudes. That becomes more worrisome when momentum diverges, and the recent indications show the percentage of 20-day highs stagnating as the market moves higher. New highs should expand with market highs, and this latest development is worth monitoring. Anecdotally, the volume in names like PLUG and FCEL (more speculative energy alternatives) has begun to swell. We can't help but ask if these are not the energy equivalent of ASIA, ICGE and CMGI that would show similar volume surges as speculative interests in technology over the years were reaching a peak." -- Lehman's aptly named technician Jeff DeGraaf.

  • Pebbles got bam bammed?

  • If I was a Hussman, Ya ha deedle deedle, bubba bubba deedle deedle dum.

  • Keep an eye on OSX 145 (acne) as it eyes a retest.

  • Some Trust from the North.

  • Supply constraints in Red Dye?

  • JDSU $50? $100? $150?

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "There are always things to worry about, to be sure, but the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs is certainly not one of them. This phenomenon has been going on for over 30 years now and the sky has not as yet fallen. We have been producing more output with fewer workers for a long time. As for our global standing, our position is far better than our traditional competitors in Europe and Japan, as our economy continues to post good growth with minimum unemployment while theirs suffer very little growth and high unemployment. I'm not sure what you think is wrong with this picture. Minyan Mark" MM-That's kinda the point of the column, Mark-I'm pretty sure that the 25,000 General Motors (GM) workers who were laid off a few weeks ago would beg to differ. The dichotomy between the "haves" and "have nots" seems to be growing daily and erasing the middle class. Or, at least that's what I'm seeing from my perch.

  • O-pecking order!

  • Misery Loves Company? The International Monetary Fund's managing director, Rodrigo Rato, joins Paul Volcker, Warren Buffett and Boo in voicing concern for the underlying imbalances.

  • Is a bank in the bush worth two in the hand?

  • Silver (-1.5%) was rebuffed near the '05 high again. I'm still looking for a level to get back involved in white lightning.

  • Oh bruddah, my muddah!

  • As you may recall, this is a theme Prof. Succo been following. Hedge funds that invest in convertible bonds got off to their worst start during the first five months of this year. Convertible-bond arbitrage funds, which have about $45 billion of assets, fell 6.73% on average in the five-month period, the biggest losses since Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. started keeping records in 1990. The decline has affected investor confidence in a $1 trillion industry that's supposed to do well whether financial markets are rising or falling. A net $1.8 billion was redeemed from convertible bond funds in the first quarter, according to estimates from Tremont Capital Management.

  • Professor McGuirk makes his way towards Ojai!

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