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Random Thoughts


As go the financials, so goes the tape.

  • The single most frustrating morning ever? Let's see:

    A) That unfortunate moment in 1993 that (I'm told) every man experiences at one point in his life.
    B) The redeye flight home after the Raiders were dismantled in the 2002 Superbowl.
    C) The morning First Interstate was taken over after I sold my longs and got caught short.
    D) This morning, as we launched the widely anticipated Buzz 2.0 and it made Vonage look like a superstar.

    If you guessed "D," you would be 100% correct. I won't offer excuses--we don't do that in the 'Ville--but take me at my word that we'll make it up to ye faithful.

  • After a tenuous start to the session, the XAU is grinding 3.5% higher. I added to my exposure in this complex late yesterday, as discussed, but they're far from out of the wood (or the mine, as the case may be).

  • Housing Bubble? What housing bubble?

  • As discussed in my opener and as vibed by Jeff "I'll see you at MIM3!" Saut, the recent lows offer defined risk for those looking to hang with Hoofy. Textbook technicals dictate that a "higher low" would be a constructive step for the Matador Crowd, particularly after the consistent series of "lower highs" since the May 10 tops.

  • And the critter of the day award goes to....Belle!

  • I suppose you can't blame Boo as he's been a patient bear these last few years.

  • Maybe it's the Raider fan in me but the commitment to excellence runs through my veins. In that respect, please know that I'm NOT OK with the "little glitches" this morning but I understand that they are, in fact, part of any launch.

  • Did you see the new "view finder" on the left hand side of the Minyanville home page?

  • As go the financials, so goes the tape. And while I shaved my piggy puts yesterday, I understand that thy bacon won't start shakin' until it pokes through XBD 205 or BKX 108.

  • Turnaround Tuesday? Feels that way so far, as NYSE internals are 2:1 positive and our leaders be leading. It's likely too early to proclaim a bottom but the higher lows (across the board) are most certainly constructive. That is, as long as they hold.

  • Take some time to tool around the new Buzz. You'll find filters, preferences, bells and whistles that many a Minyan have requested through the years.

  • "We have liquidated our entire convertible bond portfolio. I mentioned the other day that the relative basis has been doing well as new money was coming into the space. This is a tenet of trading: you can only sell when people want to buy (this is especially true about less liquid securities like convertible bonds). You have to be in a position to do so while controlling risk. Markets are all about liquidity. So convertible bond prices have been rising as liquidity has been rising as investors chase returns. The last few days we have seen the basis begin to go down; perhaps all the money is in. The fundamentals do not support the prices the market has been paying. So we have been slowly selling into strength. When everyone wants out, just like last May through June when convertible bonds went down in a straight line, we want to be in a position to buy." John Succo on today's Buzz (no, seriously!)

  • This morning was stressful. How stressful was it? It was "three walks" stressful, which is the red zone in the new, post-phone Todd world. But you know what? It could be worse--a lot worse--and I'm mindful of that as I pick the hair follicles that have littered my desk.

  • And, lest I lose perspective, I've got Tom Petty at the Garden tonight with my brother John Succo and our chickies (sorry, Mary Jane!). So, while I wanted to scream Yer so bad this morning, I won't back down from saying "Great Job to all ye at MVHQ" who worked so tirelessly on this launch. And thank you, Minyans, as we edge into the Great Wide Open and run down our dream. Learning to Fly took some time but if we get lucky babe, the Buzz won't be Free Fallin' anymore.
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