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Random Thoughts


Deep breaths, Toddo!

  • Repeat after me: I love Mondays. After our supposed server upgrade, this is now my second pass at Random Thoughts (the first fistful was flushed into cyberspace). You know what? It could be worse (I'm repeating that to myself numerous times with hopes that it eventually sinks in).

  • Sand Castles!

  • "The technical price action in equities remains bullish, as the SPX broke out of its recent consolidation range through 1210. NYSE breadth is close to making a new high which would confirm our positive trend scores for the market generally. With the September crude contract now trading above $60, energy related names dominate relative strength scores. It's hard to argue with the strength of the charts, once again the near-term sentiment keeps us from sizing as aggressively as we might otherwise. Within the space, we prefer the prospects of gas relative to oil, finding less enthusiasm for the underlying or the stocks." -- Lehman's jazzy technician Jeff DeGraaf.

  • The definition of compression.

  • Get used to the terms "industry overcapacity" and "consolidation," particularly if you're wandering down Wall Street.

  • "Hey kettle, you're black!" Elmer "Pot" Greenspan as he looks to proactively assign blame.

  • While the metals (and energy) have slipped from their highs, strength in soy, wheat, aluminum and corn are keeping the CRB above the reverse dandruff line (310).

  • "Investigators said Shaw told his grandmother he was growing tomatoes and she had no idea what he was really up to."

  • NYSE internals have been skewed 2:1 negative all session. The longer they stay skewed as they are, the more likely a soft close becomes. Be that as it may, and it may be nothing, the tape still feels like it's got an underlying bid.

  • If the Minx is gonna enjoy another upside leg, odds are that the piggies will have to poke through the BKX 100ish resistance zone.

  • No Billy, this doesn't mean that you can walk up and squeeze them.

  • "As for us, like Alan Greenspan, we don't understand a lot of things currently. And we have learned the hard way that when we don't "understand," it has historically been a good idea not to be too aggressive. Moreover, our work continues to show that the equity markets are well over-bought and therefore risky on a trading basis. Consequently, we are long only one-third of those tactical trading positions recommended back on May 2nd and we continue to raise stop-loss points on those positions. The other two-thirds of the trading account is positioned in cash. The investment side of the portfolio, however, remains fairly fully invested, albeit hedged on the downside for many of our "stuff stock" positions." - Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James

  • Puppy love!

  • Wanna bet?

  • The "anti-Euro" explanation for the recent dollar jig makes intuitive sense. Ultimately, my sense is that we'll see further rotation into the metals as folks wake up to the fact that our currency has issues of its own.

  • Babies and bathwater.

  • I wonder if they own a clown car?

  • The critters are starting to migrate towards Ojai in anticipation of Laurie McGuirk's arrival at Minyans in the Mountains.

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