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Random Thoughts


If you're not mandated to take risk, don't feel compelled to do so.

  • While I'm not "opposed" to further liftage, I'm also quite aware of two things. First, the Fed is still stuck between inflation (energy, healthcare, education) and deflation ("commoditized goods" such as cell phones, laptops and cars). That, to me, stanks of stagflation. And second, despite popular perception, the end of a rate hike cycle in no way infers that the market will rally. Indeed, the 'light at the end of the tunnel' crowd is likely running directly towards a train.

  • My epiphany this morning? No, it wasn't the decision to shave a Mohawk on Farley at next Wednesday's staff meeting (although we're going to do that with his blessing). It was IBM, which was the default setting on my trusty Thomson ONE system when I powered up. I've played the Big Blue Dandruff before (and got stopped out) but this particular head & shoulders (one year chart) is screaming for attention. I nibbled on some autumn puts out of the gate, which "fit" well against my SunMicro calls.

  • Word has it that the jobs report was leaked by Beeks before it hit the tape. The Labor Department investigated the situation but assures us that everything is cooler than Fonzi. Keep in mind, these are the same folks who are telling us that only 4.6% of Americans are unemployed.

  • Duck! Where's Sigourney Weaver when you need her most?

  • I told Boo that he could fade (read: make sales) into NDX 1635 and S&P 1300 as the oversold condition (stochastics) gets worked off. Personally, I'm paring (longs) and building gamma as vols retreat 30% off their highs and overall, I'm still pretty balanced (for me).

  • If you're not mandated to take risk, don't feel compelled to do so. When in doubt, sit it out, cookie, and wait until you see the seams on the ball.

  • Why don't they just breed her with a bulldog?

  • I agree with Pepe and Laurie that the physical metal is a "purer play" than the metal equities as a function of systematic risk and nationalization concerns. Still, given the field position of the latter and the Peruvian angst, I'm chill with some defined risk over-the-weekend plays.

  • If you haven't weighed in on the Meehan nickname challenge, please do so. And, so you know, I'm officially switching my vote to "Curly."

  • What's worse than an A.D.D writer/trader in a sensory overload environment? Answer: An A.D.D writer/trader in a sensory overload environment with Television's JeffMacke® roaming the halls and a massive mindmeld in the main conference room. I mean, Jeez Louise, it's not like I've gotta lotta risk on!

  • If I got to choose a coast I got to choose the East. I live out there, so don't go there. But that don't mean a Minyan can't rest in the West. See some nice hoops in the West.

  • As Succo and I discussed (again) last night, we can see a lower greenback and higher asset prices or a higher greenback and lower asset prices. What we won't see is a higher greenback and higher asset prices. So, while a crimson drip in the dollar doesn't necessitate a rally, it doesn't preclude one either.

  • The Russell, which tried to poke through resistance at 740, got waxed like a Brazilian beach babe. It lead us higher so respect the reversal.

  • How can you read this without thinking of Blazing Saddles?

  • Pop goes the homies---man, talk about the other side of the trade. The HGX is testing multiple bottoms that date back to January '05.

  • As I jockey between three meetings, eight screens, two trading accounts, several columns and multiple projects, it suddenly occurred to me that if I do my job right, Minyanville will never reach its potential in my lifetime.

  • I cannot tell a lie--I added some more JP Morgan puts into the earlier liftage.

  • Zen Like? A black belt in consumer behavior? A lone wolf? Who ARE these people?

  • Fare ye well into the bell, Minyans, and have a mindful weekend.


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position on sunw, ibm, metal equities, jpm
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