The Nash Smash
Gentlemen don't spit!
I can see clearly now the rain is gone
I can see all obstacles in my way
Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind
It's gonna be a bright (bright) sun shiny day
I'll tell ya, Minyans, the more things change, the more they stay the same. I've spent the better part of today's session making calls around the street and I can tell you that there's a ton of angst out there. Everyone's either not making enough or losing too much and itching to get more exposure. I've even picked up chatter of pending quarter-end mark-ups. I schvitz you not!
I opined to my brethren a few thoughts and, as I strive to be consistent with my fellow Minyans, I wanted to pass them along. In a nutshell, I said this: If you told me a few months ago that we'd be at S&P 980/Dow 900/NDX 1200+/BKX 850 on a spike, with the bull/bear skewed as it is, with the VIX where it is, with sentiment as it is... I'd lick my chops twice and ask you to pinch me.
Sometimes you can't see the forest through the trees and I was an admitted lumberjack on the way up. With that said, I would argue that the same thing (in reverse) could very well be happening now. There is a legitimate buying panic and the downside is being viewed as nothing more than an opportunity. That spells danger in my book, and while I've been chilly, I feel a duty to communicate my honest take.
I'm slipping one leg into the fur (25% conviction on the short side) and defining my risk either through puts (premium) or stops (common). I may be spittin' into the wind but as I see/feel it, you're gonna read it. As always, this is just one trader's humble opinion so take it for what it's worth. A'ight?
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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