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Random Thoughts


There's alotta pushin' and pullin' out there...

  • Mucho white light to Minyan Arlen Kessler and his mother as she's gotta tough afternooon ahead of her.

  • "Sometimes the Point & Figure Charts (P&F) provide a "strikingly" different perspective of the world's equity markets than the vertical bar-charts do. Therefore, over the weekend, we perused many of the major-market indices using the P&F Charts. And except for the D-J Utility Index (DUX), most of the world's indices are negatively configured, having broken down from what looks to be massive topping formations. Consequently, while this current "throwback rally" in the U.S. equity markets has been impressive and may last another few sessions, we are worried about the subsequent downside retest . . . and continue to defensively position accounts accordingly." Jeff "I'll see you at MIM3" Saut of Raymond James

  • Hello Muddah, Hello Dollah. If it rallies, beware of squalor! A strong greenback (currently +40 bips) hasn't been supportive of a higher asset class dance. And while it's a "big picture influence," it's worthy of a noodle as we edge into the Monday fun.

  • I've heard of dead cat bounces but this is unacceptable.

  • The XBD (broker index), after poking at the 200-day, flipped the crimson switch this morning. I've got some short-side exposure in this complex and will pare some of that risk if XBD 205ish or BKX 108 is breached. Discipline over conviction.

  • The Russell (as in small caps, not Uncle Buck) are off a percent...Minyan Michael Santoli Buzzed this morning that he "can't help but think the action today in the Russel 2k (noted on Buzz) has plenty to do with the annual rebalance. I tend to spend very little time trying to decipher/game the index turnover, but it seems to me the underperformance plus the fact the IWM has already done half its average daily volume imply something mechanical going on here. Note the IWM is significantly underperforming the S&P Small Cap on the day." Thanks Mike!

  • On the frip side, the Nets, Intel, Microsoft and retail act relatively dry. If we turn higher, these names should lead.

  • Don't you just hate the Mondays?

  • Queen Vanessa surprised me with a small (and early) birthday gathering Saturday night with some friends at one of my favorite haunts, Scalinatella. As we unleashed our top buttons into the wee hours, our table of ten and a small threesome in the corner were the only remaining patrons. As the other group got up to leave, we turned to see Joe Pesci walking towards our table. "I think you're very funny," said President Fish in the general direction of Tommy DeVito, who didn't miss a beat while staying in character. I'll tell ya Kevin, you're a mutterin', stutterin'....

  • There's alotta pushin' and pullin' out there but the net/net is sloppy internals (2:1 negative) and resistance still resting above. These vibes are offered in the context of somewhat oversold stochastics and an uptick in "nervousness" which, if we rally, will be renamed the wall of worry.

  • What am I doing? Other than readying Buzz 2.0, chattin' with investors, putting the final touches on MIM3, scanning my eight screens, preppin' for my Denver road show and noodlin' lunch options, not a whole heckuva lot. I've got my two-sided bet on and will shape it as a function of time, price or both.

  • I nibbled ever-so-gently into some metal and driller downside slippage. If I didn't have some shorts on, however, I would be entirely more concerned.

  • No, I didn't think last night's Entourage episode was all that. And I am looking for reasons to push the show to thy faithful.

  • "I was kind of curious if there has been any widening in high grade corporate bonds lately relative to Treasuries. My guess would be that there would have been given increased vols in stocks and commodities, and all the leverage. So I asked around to 5 or 6 of the dealers that cover us. The answer was uniformly NO." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Europe is hanging tough despite the crimson stateside probe.

  • R.P.
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