By Todd Harrison Jun 18, 2004 3:26 pm
Fare ye well into the bell!
Running on-running on empty
Running on-running blind
Running on-running into the sun
But I'm running behind
The afternoon Minx has started to blink as traders wonder what to think. We discussed the potential for jittery critters and the tape trades that way. There are no two ways to interpret the beheading of Paul Johnson--it's disgusting--and it served as a painful reminder of what type of people we're dealing with. The issue into the close is whether the angst will manifest and what type of undercurrent expiration will lend.
The action today, for lack of a better word, has been aimless. We've been discussing the drippy volatility over on the Buzz and how frustrating it's been to trade. With quarter-end inching ever-so-closer, the grip on the handlebars is starting to tighten and aggravated hedgies are losing patience. I'm not certain how that'll play out in the marketplace but I continue to feel that a disconnect exists between perception and reality. In other words, current volatility levels are screaming "range bound" and the potential exists for anything but.
The structural elements are somewhat constructive in the face of 'obvious' worries. Credit spreads are relatively tight, Europe and the emerging markets remain bid, the metals are flush with liquidity (which could be a safety play, Carrie based or dollar related) and the sell side feels forced and unmotivated. The two primary risks are geopolitical and technical--the Minx continues to fail at the downtrend lines as fear dissipates daily.
The earnings parade marches on next week as Goldman (GS:NYSE) and Morgan (MWD:NYSE) take the baton on Tuesday. The collective reaction to these numbers will help us identify the collective psychology as the BKX (banks) vs. XBD (brokers) walk-off rages on. We've had to put our detective hats on to find clues to the fuse but I would get used to it as the dynamic promises to remain twisty and difficult for as long as the eye can see.
I'm gonna jump and finish the week with yet another conference call. It's been a bit jammy of late but alotta good things are in motion. The Minyan Mountain Minglefest is gonna be insane, the Critter's Choice Awards foundation is being laid and the critters continue to scratch and claw their way into the mainstream. It's been a heckuva ride thus far but we're getting there because of Minyans like you. Thanks kindly and remember that the purpose of the journey is the journey itself.
Have a peaceful weekend.
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