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The Thrill of the Hill


Keep your eyes out for pins and needles into the afternoon action.


Many have I loved
Many times been bitten
Many times I've gazed
Along the open road

(Led Zeppelin)

Good morning as we flip the switch on the triple witch. Time flies when you're having fun as our year is half over before it's begun. With June puts and calls set to expire, it's time for this climb to spark newfound desire. "We've gone nowhere fast," said Sammy the snake, the critter of choice for those still awake, "but something is up so make no mistake as we ready to break from the eight month long wake." Can Hoofy step up and revive this 'ol pup or will Boo and his crew soon hoist the tin cup? It's freaky, it's Friday, it's sure gonna thrill so kick off your shoes and let's walk through the 'Ville!

As it's been quiet for a while, we've had plenty of time to walk through our rhyme. We know all about the technical bout-the homies have acne, the industrials are trying to join 'em, the banks and trannies aren't invited and, while we're still extended, we've managed to work off some of that condition as a function of time rather than price. We're also aware that some stealth resistance remains (trendlines from the '02-'03 lows) but, through honest eyes, the tape "feels" like it wants to let bygones go bye-bye.

We've also chatted on the compression and discussed the trap doors that likely litter our path. With 8000 hedgies chasing performance and countless others playing, there is quiet riot under the surface that fails to get mentioned while the screens are green. That, for me, is the delicate dance that I've been waltzing of late. I've been constructive on the tape while conscious of the underlying risk. It's a balance that requires constant attention and discipline, particularly when trying to express a consistent and forthright vibe.

We power up this frisky pup to find Europe and Asia higher, the dollar a bit lower and the metals en fuego still. I've been doing a mental dance on the "reflation-deflation" dynamic as I'm conscious of the CRB (looks like it wants to break out through 310) but a bit confused by the greenback. My sense is that some of the recent currency jig is a function of the uncertainty surrounding the Euro and perhaps it's just that simple. Still, in the big picture and from 40,000 feet, I just don't see (pick an asset class) and the dollar moving in the same direction.

Lots going on behind the scenes at MVHQ as we set the stage for our Sundance of Finance. Professor Laurie McGuirk chimed in this morning to let us know that he's trekkin' up from Australia to attend the 'fest and, as I've never shaken the man's hand, I'm jacked about that. Minyans are migrating from around the world to join forces and meld minds and it's an amazing tribute to everyone involved in our mission of fiscal literacy. If you're on the fence, go with your gut-I promise that we'll do everything we can to make the Minyanfest memorable.

Good luck today.

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