Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Technical View - ORCL



Note: the following analysis is formulated as an assimilation of Fibonacci, DeMark, Elliott Wave and other technical indicators. It is offered as education and not intended as advice in any way.

Oracle (ORCL:NASD) has, or will likely soon, trace out an impulse wave off the January 16th high at $15.03, suggesting that, in the least a much larger degree correction off the January highs is underway that will eventually likely put in substantially lower lows than the recent $10.85 low.

It is more probable that the major downtrend that established itself from the January 2000 peak to the June 2002 low has now resumed and could carry prices below the 2002 lows. That remains speculation at this point so we will continue to focus on a shorter time frame, but the most confident observation we can make is that the correction from the January highs is far from complete. Just how low it takes ORCL eventually remains to be seen. For now, the January peak registered important daily momentum divergences against previous peaks as well as registering two important daily and one important weekly Demark trend exhaustion indicators. Additionally, the bounce from the 2002 lows was corrective (overlapping) and seemed to trace out a double zig-zag (labeled W-X-Y) though admittedly that interpretation is open to debate. The most important aspect of the move off the 2002 lows however, is that it is overlapped and therefore corrective.

Two possible scenarios present themselves at this juncture: since a 5th wave down from January has ended on 6/3/04 or will shortly end with another new swing low to the $10.80 area, a bounce may occur as ORCL corrects the 24 weeks and nearly 30% decline that has taken place since January. Fibonacci resistance is in the $12.45-$13.45 area (15-25% gains from a potential $10.80 low) and prices could take upwards of 2-3 months to get there.

Once we can confidently identify a corrective move to that Fibonacci resistance, the next opportunity will present itself: a move lower for the next impulse wave down toward potentially $8.75 or so. There is lots of time and potential price action between here and that level so we'll take it one day at a time to assess whether this larger call is playing out.

The very short term has prices moving impulsively lower from the 6/15 highs. If a 5th wave low has already formed on 6/3, then this move will be held by Fibonacci support at $11.07-$11.23. However, should ORCL move below those levels, then a final 5th wave low off the January highs is to be expected in the $10.80 area.

The immediate view then looks for a bounce soon if the $11.07-$11.23 level holds prices in a three-wave pullback from the 6/15 highs OR after a full 5 waves have developed off the 6/15 highs and registered new swing lows beneath $10.85. We will keep traders updated when the technical indicators suggest action.

< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The informatio= n on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the perf= ormance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles a= ppear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily t= he views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing c= ontained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advic= e addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase,= sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prosp= ective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sal= e of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader eith= er individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional.= Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities th= at are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles = are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund = discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or dire= ction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit busin= ess of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management= and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or ot= her communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.<= /p>

Featured Videos