You always wanna see both sides of every trade!
Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next discussion with that very intent.
I have been reading the missives from Minyanville since its inception. There seems to be a theme that the government is either lying or is oblivious to the inflation problem. This seems to be continually documented by various anecdotal evidence. Fine. Next question: so?
Are we surprised that this has happened? There are how many economists at BLS trying to calculate various inflation related numbers? Do not all of these formulas/methodologies include a very high error rate? Is there any published inflation rate which would be satisfactory? I would say no, since there are different prices for all consumers based on location, negotiation and need for product/service. If the government said the CPI or PPI or whatever was 10% or 1%, I really don't care. I am more concerned with the reaction to whatever the number is.
I am concerned for you since you seem to be taking a view that the government is lying, the market is irrational and 'I am right.' I just remember the adage that the markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
Not drinking the Kool-aid.
Minyan Ray Dingman
First of all, thank you for your continued support and faithful Minyanship. Our readers are our lifeline and we appreciate any and all feedback and interaction. Your point is well taken but not completely agreed with. I do believe that posturing and jawboning is incessant and I also think that a certain amount of "tinkering" goes on behind the scenes. I am not, however, making overt accusations or drawing any lines in the sand. Last year was a humbling experience (I got caught up in the currents of injected liquidity) and was reminded quite often that we are simply pawns in this minxy game.
With that said, I'll argue that it's not only our right but our responsibility to question our elected officials. I do believe that Elmer and his cronies know how deep our financial hole is and, to put it bluntly, they're panicked. I don't have the answers and, quite frankly, I'm not sure that any exist. We continue to publish dollars, build deficits and leverage what we don't have for more of what we want. Something is gonna give, Ray, and my only intention is to offer thy faithful food for thought so they can make more informed decisions for themselves.
The problem--and my primary motivation in starting the 'Ville--is that financial literacy is largely ignored. Most folks are too embarrassed to admit that they don't understand the market, as it's such an important aspect of the global architecture. My contention is that society will need to better understand how these interrelationships exist and, more to the point, seek a refuge where they trust they'll get an honest and forthright look at the books. Yes, Markets can stay irrational longer than most can stay solvent but a rational perspective isn't a mutually exclusive endeavor.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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