By Todd Harrison Jun 16, 2005 8:58 am
Macke AND the horse?!?
- Last night we enjoyed a tranched Perlin-Macke-Succofest at various NYC venues. The quote of the night? "Sometimes I sit there in awe while looking at the low levels of volatility and shake my head at the risk in the system." Now, for those who aren't aware, John ran some major Wall Street operations over the last 20-odd years and I don't know a better derivative trader period. When he talks, I tend to edge to the end of my seat and listen to his nuggets of wisdom.
- So, the Chinese Gov't is considering a $15 Billion bailout of their stock market, eh? And we wondered why they weren't so quick to appease our currency concerns? If the 60's were the Age of Aquarius and Don Henley sang The End of the Innocence, we should mentally prepare ourselves for the Era of the Isolationist. It's every cat (and country) for themselves these days as they struggle to defend their economic borders. Ultimately, and despite what you see on your screen, this dynamic will manifest in the US Dollar.
- Bark three times if you really wanna hold him...
- Goldman Sachs missed EPS views this morning and is trading off 1%. Please watch this stock as a "tell" for the financial space today as 1) the XBD tries to build on the reverse dandruff and 2) the BKX remains under the 200-day moving average.
- The action in the banks (and trannies) has been a thorn in the side of the rose colored glasses group.
- If you didn't read Scotto's column yesterday, print it out for weekend perusal. He discussed a Bizarro Sherwood Forest, a place where we rob from the poor and give to the rich. If you have some middle class trading cards, you may wanna put them in a shoebox for a few years. They may very well be collector's items one day.
- My money's on Mr. Bernanke although, to be fair, I'm not sure he's gonna need it. From what I understand, he intends to print all the money he needs hot off the presses.
- Professor Jeff Macke and the incomparable Iron Horse will be swingin' by MVHQ today for some fresh fish and a few hugs. Welcome fellas!
- A late Hump Day Buzz from Phil "my pockets" Erlanger: Stocks with Heavy Short Interest were Among the Top Percentage Gainers for Wednesday. The shorts refuse to give up on KB Home (KBH) as it rose 1.91% and short intensity is at 70%. Earnings are due for KBH tomorrow (which would be today) and it should be interesting. We note that retailer The Buckle (BKE) had a strong performance today rising 5.11% and short interest remains heavy at 88%.
- Speaking of the homies, the HGX broke out to a new all-time high yesterday and finished the session with a spate of green pimples. HGX 520 becomes a defined buy-side stop zone for those brave enough to step into the eye of that hurricane. I saw this near-term action evolve but 1) didn't play it as I don't believe the risk/reward is advantageous and 2) I think the HOUSDAQ bubble is in the late innings--and while there could be some action left, I think I see Mariano warming up in the bull pen.
- As long as we're talking levels, and just to be consistent, DJIA 10,600 remains a spread triple top breakout if and when it occurs. Technicals are but one of four primary metrics, we know, but this snazzy little pattern happens to coincide with some rather flakey reverse dandruff.
- Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "I was very happy to see the tame numbers on inflation yesterday morning. For a while there, I thought the notice from my health insurance carrier that my premiums would go up 23% was for real. I guess it's good I filed no claims and they paid nothing on my behalf for the last year. What a relief! Minyan David"
- Like him or hate him, this had to feel good for Jason after all he's been through of late.
- I was talking media last night and humbly opined that internet and satellite must be the primary revenue drivers of a successful media operation with traditional outlets-paper publishing among them-assuming support roles in the product mix.
- My sense on today's tape? Still "feels" like they wanna try higher, particularly if the DJIA can get over the next hump. With expiration looming and the fabric somewhat frail, however, I think risk definition (both ways) is the "easy" trade of the day.
- If Minyans would like to connect with those who attended last year's Minyans in the Mountains retreat in Crested Butte, Colorado, we'd be happy to put you in touch. This year's fete in Ojai is gonna be a bit snazzier but the underlying vibe and community construct will be consistent with everything that you've come to expect from the city of critters.
- Speaking of MiM2, well placed sources have Professor Laurie McGuirk of Australia "99% done" on being there. Noice!
- Good luck today, Minyans, and hit 'em where they ain't!
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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