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Random Thoughts


Like sands through the hourglass, so go the days of our options...

  • Boo!

  • On the heels of our recent observation that the BKX (banks) and trannies (TRAN) aren't "confirming" the upside, the piggies are trying to step up their pep. BKX 99.60, the 200-day moving average, remains the line in the upside sand.

  • I'm goin' back to Cali, to Cali, to Cali...

  • I mentioned last week that the "structural flight" from the Euro (on the heels of a few thumbs down across the pond) was likely contributing to the dollar jig but offered surprise that the metals weren't equally benefiting given the fundamental flaws in the greenback. RBC is out with a report today saying much the same.

  • Rule #26 of what not to do as a summer intern: Pledge Farley, for the second time in as many weeks, wore the same outfit to work today as he did yesterday. I have no problem with his alternative social habits but if he slips once today-ONCE-he will feel 36 years worth of wrath and fury coming down on top of him!

  • NYSE breadth, my single best intraday tell, is hanging (with Mr. Cooper) 3:2 negative.

  • Oxycute Me! The Homies have edged to an all-time high (through HGX 520) and the bovine will look to use that former ceiling as a newfound floor. I opined last week that I didn't wanna short this chart and-while I'm firmly in the "this is a housing bubble and it's gonna end nosty-I'm not brave enough to fade this feast.

  • Rompin' 'round with Professor Fleck.

  • The eagle has landed!

  • Stan!

  • DJIA 10,600. Are we clear? (crystal!)

  • Please take a read of Scotto's recent vibe. The "first receivers" of the Fed's credit creation benefit at the expense of the "last receivers." That's an important point and bears repeating.

  • Courtesy of Minyan Metrosexual David Fine: "The S&P/VIX ratio is back at levels typically associated with short-term tops"

  • I thought Pepe's late day retail vibe is the textbook vision of real-time fiscal literacy.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag from Professor Jason Goepfert: "I went back and looked at the OSX (Oil Service Sector) since August of '97...specifically, I looked for all occurances of when the index closed 15%+ higher than the period from 20 trading days ago...{and} reversion to the mean wins out again. 5 days later the index was positive only 40% of the time with an average return of -2.0%....10 trading days later, positive only 39.4% of the time with average return of -2.3%...20 trading days later, positive only 44.5% of the time with average return of -1.8%...seems IF it breaks out, would be good fade." Minyan TC

    Right-o, TC. I used your parameters and came up with the same info. Trend-following strategies tend to get the most press based on a few high-profile traders, but generally that strategy is difficult to follow in the equities markets, particularly when dealing with indexes. So I'm not surprised to see your note on future negative performance after periods of large gains - it's all part of the back-and-forth cycle equities markets tend to go through. Thanks for the heads-up!

  • The wrong kind of Minyanville.

  • Raaaaaaaaaaaaid!

  • Note to Fish-you're birthday is over (and so are the excuses).

  • For all those Minyans wonderin' if Minyans in the Mountains II is "by the pro's, for the pro's and with nothing but the pro's," we're excited to share that Minyan Richard-one of Santa Barbara's brave firefighters-will be joining us in Ojai. That's awesome!

  • Peak, peak, peak, peak of Earl, Earl, Earl, Earl...

  • T-minus 15 days left in the quarter. Of course, anyone who has to pen a letter to their investors are keenly aware of this fact already.

  • When the walls...come tumblin' down. When the walls (when the walls) come tumblin', tumblin'....

  • I still don't know if we're seeing white towels or yellow flags fly overhead. The former will likely lead to "an upside capitulation" while the latter will usher in screams of "You're going the long way!" (how does he know where we're going?)

  •'re saying deflation?

  • There are no accidents!

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence vibe is out and it's a good thing that Boo found Winnie---according to the poll, only 20.4% polled are bearish. The last time that happened, the tape got fo-shnzizzled.

  • Note to John Snow - it's called Isolationism and we need to get used to it.

  • Charting functionality made fun!

  • Vibes from Dr. John.

  • Recruit a Minyan and vibe in Ojai for FREE!

  • What's the record for most Random Thoughts in one day?

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