By Todd Harrison Jun 15, 2004 2:18 pm
Fair ye well into the bell!
Tempted by the fruit of another
Tempted but the truth is discovered
What's been going on
Now that you have gone
The afternoon sauce continues to toss as the bulls climb aboard and the bears eat a loss. Today's action is, in many ways, the mirror image of yesterday's fray. Breadth is noice, the banks are buoyant, the semis are sticky, the small caps ain't so small and the cyclicals are cycling higher. A few flies remain--the brokers, resistance, biotech--but Hoofy has to be happy with the effort thus far.
A faithful Minyan asked if the recent round trip alleviated the previously overbought condition and the answer is "sorta, kinda but not really." We know from experience that these readings are typically "worked off" as a function of time or price and, as such, the churny action is a step in the right direction. Alotta measures remain toppy in the short-term (Snoop Tone's percentages and the nose bleed stochastics come to mind) so while the sideways slither certainly helps, it's by no means a panacea.
Lennar (LEN:NYSE) and Oracle (ORCL:NASD) highlight tonight's parade and will set the stage for tomorrow's march. The mighty Bear (BSC:NYSE) and Best Buy (BBY:NYSE) will share the morning stage with Beeks (housing starts (exp. 1950k), building permits (exp. 1970k), industrial production (exp. .8%) and capacity utilization (exp.77.5%)) and set the Hump Day tone that we'll be hummin' all day.
I'm balancing the benign inputs from our credit brethren, technical barriers above, geopolitical unknowns and the minxy undercurrents (expiration and quarter-end) as I forge my particular path. While I had been trading silver from the short-side (as it got near $6.20), I flipped lids and got long a little earlier today. My thinking is that if, in fact, Carrie is pulling a Jedi mind trick, this commodity is a decent hedge vs. some of my other positions. If liquidity becomes an issue, my risk is defined (via a stop) and my other positions should gain traction. None of this is advice and all of it is subject to change--I'm just sharing my process with hopes it adds value to yours.
In Minyanville news, we're putting the final touches on the Minyan in the Mountains retreat and should have that set to go tomorrow. We're also dotting the "I's" and crossing the "T's" for Professors Weldon and Dingmann and those are "any day now" situations. Last but certainly not least, the Critters Choice Awards is formulating behind the scenes and while it's not this week's business, it's certainly something to look forward to. All good things in all good time, Minyans, as we find our way through the minxy fray.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
position in silver
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