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Random Thoughts


And to think that earnings season is on deck!


  • It's not about getting from here to there, it's how--and with who--that counts.

  • Elmer hit the tape earlier and said that "uncertainty" is the economy's defining characteristic and the recent performance is "impressive." He stopped short, however, of discussing current economic or monetary policy.

  • Did anybody see Debbie Downer on SNL? I haven't laughed that hard since...well, since Collins downed those cookies on Thursday!

  • This morning's swift lift has now filled the gaps created by yesterday's slopin' open--S&P 1136 and NDX 1481 are where we closed last Thursday. A'right?

  • The bulls are pointing to a double-sided time horizon. They are looking to run 'em into Friday's expiration and carry the momentum through quarter-end (11 days). That is, at least, the chatter I'm picking up from Matador City.

  • Bear markets are traditionally defined as 20% corrections. A more apt description is a market that is increasingly difficult to make money. Sound familiar?

  • "Oh I like this one... One dog goes one way, the other dog goes the other way, and this guy's sayin', 'Whadda ya want from me?'"

  • The brokers are trying to join the party (think Duke & Duke at Christmas time) but are strugglin' with supply. Lehman (LEH:NYSE), which reported this morning, remains a name to watch. So does Citigroup (C:NYSE).

  • Crude is trading 2% higher as the Iraqi Basra oil exports have completely halted after this morning's explosions.

  • I haven't taken a real vacation since last July 4th. That's simply just too long.

  • Elmer, Elmer, Elmer! (Think Brady Bunch)

  • "Our only take on investor complacency with regard to rates is that if they're not that concerned we're going to stay concerned." -Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • Minyanville housekeeping: The Mountain Retreat information, Greg Weldon and Neal Dingmann should all be this week's business. I know Neal is traveling on business but, in the meantime, you'll have plenty to chew on with the first two. Professor Weldon is some of the best content I've come across period.

  • Breadth, minty as it is, remains the most bullish thing on my board.

  • Do you think your firm would enjoy the 'Ville? We can set up your entire team with a free trial so they can get to know the critters! Give us a quick ping for details!

  • The VXO is off 6% today (following yesterday's spike). We remain at multi-year lows (read: complacency).

  • Is Jim Thome the most underrated home run hitter of all time?

  • Does a chicken have lips?

  • Why do I have such an interest in mental illness? Because my father is afflicted with it and trying to rationalize the irrational is the most frustrating thing I've ever tried to do. It's also the reason I have such empathy for others who have similar conditions. It's a disease--like AIDS or cancer--it's just much easier for people to point and say their "crazy."

  • Brazil, up 2%, is retesting the 50-day/200-day inflection point.

  • If (MONSTER IF) Carrie is moving forward rather than back, the metals should catch a bid. I think they've been trading heavy but I've nibbled on some silver with a tight stop below. As always, I share this process with educational intents and NOT as advice (and it's part of a larger "book").

  • Keep half an eye peeled for the retailers. Circuit City (CC:NYSE), Best Buy (BBY:NYSE), Coach (COH:NYSE) and Lowes (LOW:NYSE) are all trading on the dark side.

  • Billy Meehan is gonna be an All-Star.

  • Sleepbelts!

  • I still think Stevie Ray Vaughn was the second best strummer of all time.

  • Why are weddings black tie? Wouldn't it be great if there were weddings that were tie dye?

  • We're retesting those '04 trendlines. We've got some room, however, before BKX 98 and SOX 488 arrive.

  • Keep the pen!

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position in silver, c
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