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Random Thoughts


I'm sitting tight with that posture although I would have much preferred to see some red screens this morning.

  • Bovine exploitation! Daisy really isn't that worried.

  • The standout element in the early morning muck? The greenback which, well, is giving some green back. The DXY is off 66 bips and that's been a pretty snazzy (contra) tell for asset classes en masse. Yes, it's to be offered a false hint--nothing says we can't see a weaker dollar and weaker asset classes--but it should most definitely be on your radar.

  • Heat Wave? Dwayne Wade is staking his claim as one of the best players in the game. And I would count Dirk Nowitzki among that small group as well.

  • It's interesting to listen to the mainstream financial media noodle the cohabitation of inflation and slower growth. Fellas--read the 'Ville as we've been kinda, sorta been discussing this for a while.

  • Man, it's good to have Pepe back in the hood. I still think his "5 Things" is the best read on Wall Street.

  • Television's JeffMacke and his Fast Money show will premiere tonight at 7:00 PM on CNBC. Break a leg cookie!

  • I humbly offered, out of this morning's gate, that IF we flip the downside switch, I expected the financials to lead the bleed. Well, shiver me timbers, they're shrinking faster than a Dallas Maverick fourth quarter lead! We heard the chatta yesterday--that a large sell-side derivative desk is in trouble overseas--and while I've ridden these pups like Seattle Slew, I'm not currently involved. I wanna sell blips, as discussed, but they I didn't get that chance (yet).

  • On the other side of that ride, the one that's currently hanging with Hoofy in my metaphorical bull costume, the metals (XAU +3.3%) and energy (OSX +2.5%) are trying to hang tough. It's a small bip after the broader slip but every journey must begin with a single step. As it stands, I'm sitting tight with that posture although I would have much preferred to see some red screens this morning.

  • Biscuit!

  • NYSE breadth, 2:1 earlier today, has edged back toward a marginally positive reading (despite the negative fixed income skew).

  • Culture Shock? Thy Queen is taking me to Phantom of the Opera tonight. I hope they have subtitles!

  • "...All I can say is that big picture hasn't changed but the proprietary sentiment polls we use are in rare, EXTREME PESSIMISM areas for both stocks and gold. So we are adding exposure here after having raised some cash in bonds last week. Please keep in mind, this is more of an 'overweight trading' position for us, not an investment. Still sticking with quality and also putting on a good size position in iShares MSC I Index (EWJ), which we think can bounce 10% or so." Professor Bennet Sedacca --while on vacation, no less--on today's Buzz. (Position in EWJ)

  • Buzz 2.0 is coming up quick. Be excited. Be very, very excited.

  • It's good to see security keeping a close eye on the culprit!

  • Any Denver area Minyans that wanna lock a spot for my Colorado gaggle next Thursday can visit the MV Events Page for details. It'll be a one day schnitzel before I hop to Vail to nail down the final details for the upcoming (and most excellent) Mountain Mingle. You won't be able to miss me--I'll be the chubby guy in the vintage black Marcus Allen #32 jersey!

  • T-minus two days until June expiration. Keep that--and the potential for two-sided whippage--in mind as you chew through the grind.

  • We should hire this kid for Pie Day (our regularly scheduled MVHQ weekly staff meeting).

  • 18 years ago, I met a young child with nary a facial hair and an innocent persona. He's got a few follicles now but he's still as pure as the driven snow. He's my partner. He's my best friend. And he's a great dude. Please join me in wishing President Fish a very happy birthday!

  • According to a Bloomberg article, some of the best performing fund managers over the past decade have begun buying homebuilders after their biggest slump since '94. The article highlights Donald Hodges, whose Hodges Fund has outperformed 99% of its peers the past five years, buying Centex (CTX), Legg Mason's Bill Miller and Hussman Strategic Growth Fund's John Hussman purchasing KB Home (KBH), with Hussman also buying Toll Bros (TOL).

  • Mindful Tennis

    "Todd, you may be right on your bull call. I see higher option prices the result of an ongoing process of investors reducing their risk. At some point those higher option prices work as a contra-indicator as investors have spent a lot of money getting hedged. Once hedged they often spend money getting "unhedged." But I will tell you there is huge supply overhanging the market. Every rally has been met by selling. It is impossible to gauge when and how this overhang is worked off, at least from my perspective. I am guessing it is still there. Sorry for being messy, but that is how life is." John Succo (9:08)

    Succ, I'm "totally witcha" on the overhang, not just on a trading basis but on an investment level. It's one of the reasons I think tech and financials have a very long road ahead, as discussed in one of my missives last week. This trading try is just that--an attempt to step into the nuts and guts of the tape and earn some incremental coin. My 'trading' risk is defined and, on my longer-term stuff, I'm alright with owning partial positions in those names. As you--and most Minyans know--I typically run a hedged book. I'm simply communicating my current posture for better or for worse. And don't worry about being messy. As you say, it's how life is. And if the last two years are any indication, it's gonna be how SOFTBALL is when we square off at MIM3 in less than two months (9:28)


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position in ctx, metals, energy
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