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Random Thoughts


Happy Birthday Fish!

  • Don't force, Meat, just trade.

  • "The bond market's one-day reversal continues to weigh heavily on the 10-yr, with yields and price poised to intersect their 200-day moving averages at 4.20% and 110.61 respectively. The lack of accumulation in equities is our biggest concern, and with the emergence of summer trading, it may prove wishful thinking to expect that we will see any meaningful accumulation in the weeks ahead. Our internal momentum model which measures price, volume and breadth is overbought with price and volume measures rolling over. This seems to be more indicative of a consolidation, particularly with the lack of corrective price action so far in the consolidation." -- Lehman's talented technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Back-to-back chicken scratch!

  • The little bull on my right shoulder keeps whispering sweet nothings in my ear, patiently waiting for his window to scream higher into expiration. That furry thing on my left shoulder is saying "that's just what they want you to think!" as he dusts off his pitchfork and prepares a tasty bovine skewer. What's my gut say? Considering the recent sideways action, the inputs from Pepe and the Horse, the action in today's tells (Lehman, Best Buy, General Motors), the never-say-die homies and the constructive (but not compelling) breadth, the window remains open for a bovine climb.

    I can't--and won't--offer that this trade is without risk. The combination of expiration, complacency and upcoming catalysts--not to mention the reality of our fragile financial fabric-- dictates that risk management is an essential and necessary ingredient of any minxy approach.

  • Paul Volcker chimed in with some concerns that likely feel familiar to old school Minyans. I have little-if any-doubt that he'll be proven right. The question is one of timing and, of course, the path that we take to get there.

  • "I used to have an Italian sports car." Yeah, it was a Fiat...

  • A man who decided to wear a Pluto dog mask to rob a Gordon's Mini Market in Cranberry, PA was unsuccessful, and was forced to flee empty-handed when the clerk could not bring himself to stop laughing at the disguise. (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

  • "DigiTimes is reporting that sluggish sales of Apple's (AAPL) iPod Shuffle may cause Samsung Electronics to lower prices of NAND Flash by about 40% in the near future as the capacity allocated to AAPL is going unused. However, in direct contrast AAPL recently stated that their sales have been good but I always say, the channel knows best. We shall see. The wildcard for AAPL remains PC sales. Is expected strength in PC sales enough to offset weakness in other core areas? That's the million dollar question, isnt it?" -- Professor Sanjay Somaney on today's Buzz.

  • Seeds of life.

  • With expiration looming (price exacerbation?) and quarter-end coming up quick (T-minus...), the ability to hold steady will likely be viewed in the context of a base rather than a churn. This hasn't been the best of quarters in hedge fund land and the buyers, more likely than not, are higher (while the sellers are lower).

  • While we haven't posted the participants for the MV weight bet (some Minyans weren't thrilled the last time we did it), the game is officially on in the city of critters. Rest easy, Rob Fraim, we have you in our sights!

  • Rhonda Nichols filed a lawsuit in Lowe's Home Center in Alton, Illinois for injuries she claims to have suffered when a bird flew against the back of her head while she was shopping in the store's outdoor gardening department. According to the lawsuit, the bird caused injuries to her head, brain, neck, muscles, bones, nerves, discs and ligaments, and led to the loss of neurological functions and cognitive skills. Said a Lowe's assistant manager, "It's an outside garden area. What are we supposed to do?" She is seeking $50,000 (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)

  • According to a survey, 12% of Americans think that Joan of Arc was Noah's wife.

  • During intraday fluctuations, I often eye our mainstay tells (breadth, sectors) for signs of traction/slippage. If the internals (financials, semis) improve much easier than the decline, it often speaks to the underlying tenor and latent demand (supply).

  • Forget the breakfast of champions, here's the breakfast of Meehan's!

  • A few Minyans have inquired if Minyans in the Mountains will be "with the pros, for the pros and nothing but the pros." I will offer that our attendees last year ranged from Wall Street to Main Street and everyone left with their own lessons in tow. The vision of our "Sundance of Finance" is to provide a forum for folks to live, learn and better understand the financial fabric that we together face.

  • Carly Simon eat your heart out! Anticipation is running rampant as the critters anxiously await the next leg of this lambchop. I've been fielding a few questions from ye faithful who note:
    • QQQQ quickly peaked above its "stealth resistance" and is now rounding down and out (forming a "right shoulder")
    • Markets seem to take a quick jump in the day and then move back to flat (does't that indicate distribution?).
    • Rising gas and oil prices, slowing economic growth, a still hawkish Fed, strong dollar, trade and budget gaps and an ever-present housing bubble.
  • I see it, my friends, and these are all valid inputs. The question, from a "journey" perspective rather than a "destination" point of view is assertaining the path that we take to get "there." There are some bullish inputs--we've noted the structural stuff as well as the PnF technical vibes--and time will serve as the ultimate arbiter of our financial fate. There are no easy answers, just the discipline to make smart choices and an assimilation of the information to make an educated assumption. It's not easy...but, then again, nobody said it would be.

  • The only alligators invited to Ojai will be of the asset variety.

  • It's hard to believe that I've known President Fish for half his life. He looks the same as he did when I met him on my first day at Syracuse (save the gray hairs).

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