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Random Thoughts


If you want to add--or reduce--exposure, a dime here or there shouldn't be your biggest concern.

  • Social acrimony? Imagine what'll happen when the real bear market arrives!

  • In March of 2001, when I was honored by UCP in NYC, Minyan David Garcia flew to the big city to spend some time with myself and Bill Meehan. David is an eternal optimist, the kind of guy who lights the room with his smile and finds beauty in the world, regardless of how cruel the world can be. Why is his perspective particularly poignant? David is a quadriplegic and confined to a wheelchair--but don't you dare feel sorry for him. He has, quite possibly, one of the brightest, most energetic, "glass half full" attitudes that I've ever seen. So why do I share this story? David's mom was just diagnosed with cancer and he asked me to fire some white light down to Louisiana . As is our way in the 'Ville, I will ask you to join me in channeling that energy to them both.

  • The following Buzz took place at 11:03 this morning:

    See if you can guess what I am now. A zit, get it?

    Whoa, settle down John, that's a pretty nasty visual! I don't disagree that we may see a pop--I'm picking away into this mess and starting to lean long--but it's a pure trade and due, in part, to my peeling out of further puts (in the financial arena) as volatility pops anew. And please understand that this is independent from the spate of exposure I slapped away for a sunny day.

    Yes, I see market breadth (3:1), the dollar (+55 bips) and I'm conscious that Goldman is off a finski as the BKX slips under 108 (as go the financials...). But with the mulityear trendline in the CRB nestled below (326ish), HGX 202 right here (right now) and the the first true probe lower seemingly holding (don't blink), I'm trying my hand (not making a stand).

    Da nile? Nope, I "get" the whole liquidity wash (gold -$30) land the specter of forced selling (emerging markets don't lie). And I reserve the right to change my mind, as I'm apt to do, if I sense the wheels falling off the wagon. But as I pride myself on being forthright, I've gotta be straight with ye faithful. It may be dead wrong but we can try anything as long as we're disciplined.

    As always, I hope this finds you well.

  • Lost in the morning sauce was Russia, which was down 8% last night. We eyeballed the Templeton Russia Fund (TRF) in the early innings of this global meltage and it's now down a stunning 43% since the May high.

  • I continue to marvel at how quickly the crowd turned on Ben Bernanke. He didn't dig the hole--Elmer did--but I haven't heard anyone point the proper finger. I think both he and Franklin Raines should be held to task for what they've done. Naughty, naughty men.

  • Call me Toddo Neidermeyer. After two weeks and plenty of rest, my stiff neck is back to the breaking point. My trainer (scheduled for 6 AM) didn't believe me but Minyans know that, if nothing else, I don't fib. Just do me a favor and keep Flounder away from me!

  • From soup to nuts, an asset class overview.

  • "If there is a silver lining to the storm clouds overhead, it is that volume accompanying Friday and Monday's decline shrank from recent levels. Meanwhile, volume was extraordinary at Wednesday's low. Confirming volume isn't required to increase until the breakout - but even then, a bounce back into the range wouldn't be surprising before extending the decline sharply lower. Not surprising, and also not required." Rod "don't call me Larry" David as part of his continual Buzz updates.

  • No biggie, my fiancé finds a strange man in her bed every night! (Yes, that would be me.)

  • Personally, I think it was nice of Vince to bring his mom to the Aquaman premiere. Maybe she'll meet a nice guy!

  • Speaking of Snapper, the young terrapin is trying to turn the tide. He eyeballed the CRB 200-day earlier (nice eyes, kid) and, with the multiyear trendline below, he's got double secret support workin' for him.

  • Hey now! What's Newmont doing in Matador City ?

  • Where's the next resistance on the S&P? 1260, but I would 'think' that the internals would have to turn if that is to morph into a high probability affair.

  • You know how you can tell a true friend? When they're witcha when you've got nothing for 'em.

  • Why doesn't he eat ONE grilled cheese sandwich and send the others to shelters for the homeless? (Yes, I'm a tree hugger)

  • Don't be penny wise and pound foolish. In other words, if you want to add--or reduce--exposure, a dime here or there shouldn't be your biggest concern.

  • Homie gonna play? The homebuilders tested HGX 202 out of the morning gate, which is acne support from 2004. I think the industry is "flawed" but I've got no problem trying a trade when risk is defined. Not big, mind you, simply a schnitzel. Watch this please.

  • The risk to playing an oversold tape? Easy--an exogenous shock, as we learned in the autumn of 2001. It's a low probability affair and not one to base decisions on but we must appreciate the potential as we craft our risk profile. Why do I bring this up? Two left field catalysts come to mind--, which continues to be a problem child, and al-Qaeda, which could heat up in a retaliatory mode. I sincerely hope these fears are misplaced but if we've learned anything, it's to expect the best but prepare for the worst.

  • R.P.
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