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Random Thoughts


Keep an eye on the DJIA for a print at 10,600.

  • Has anyone ever seen Turtle and Meehan in the same grotto at the same time?

  • "Never say never. Never say always. Always reevaluate. And, never give up! And just for the record, the dollar looks toppy but has not broken down in the charts. You can circle the recent 3.8% yield on the 10-year benchmark T-Bond as the low yield of the year (unless the economy is going to decelerate much more than we anticipate) and the DJIA...well, we think it is at a pretty key juncture." -- Jeff Saut of Raymond James.

  • I still think that Art Garfunkel and Jazzy Jeff could help each other.

  • Keep an eye on Google (GOOG) $277 as it's the right shoulder of some short-term dandruff.

  • This is kinda like the Kansas City Royals crowing after winning two in a row.

  • So...a lower dollar helps U.S. multinationals and a stronger dollar portends increased demand for U.S. based assets?

  • Please keep DJIA 10,600 on ye radar as a tick there will trigger a (spread) triple top buy signal. We know the tape is extended (albeit not like it was a few weeks ago) but alotta traders are watching this and I wanted to make sure that it stays on ye radar.

  • Mad Cow Disease?

  • So Phil Purcell is forced to swallow a bitter pill. Given the defections and the lopsided sentiment, this was prolly the only way out for the famed financial institution. My sense, however, is that Mother Morgan (MWD), along with virtually every other broker, will have to battle strong headwinds as we edge forward through the long, hard road.

  • Seat heat!

  • NYSE internals, which started the session in the hole (2:1 negative) have since flipped the switch to Matador City. We're currently finding two ahead for each stock red despite the negative skew from fixed income land.

  • For all the stress, angst, tension and furrowed brows that we share each day, it's important to maintain perspective as we edge through the flickering ticks. I continue to hear "real" issues from my circle of friends and fellow professors. Moms, dads and grandpas seem to be struggling these days and THAT, my friends, is where our energy should remain focused. That's not to say that P&L's don't matter-we know that's not true-but there is a marked difference between loss and loss.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Toddo--Many of us are sitting here wondering if the market is doing the jiggy dance to the upside? Thoughts? Minyan Sal" MS- A few thoughts--one, there have been plenty of excuses for the tape to shluff off recently (rates, Fed inconsistencies, stronger dollar) but Hoofy held his ground. I think that's emboldening the bulls and forcing some off the fence. Additionally, as discussed in this morning's opener, there are structural and technical elements in play that could be helping the Matador Crowd. The upside action should be affixed with a warning label, we know, but the path of least resistance continues to 'feel' higher.

  • Pepe took Collins, Vanessa and I to the Belmont Stakes on Saturday and I enjoyed the track for the first time. I didn't make any money, of course, but how could I when I put a chunk of cash on Saint Stephen to win?

  • Oh, Gee...

  • "We thought we'd show the Philadelphia Oil Service Index (OSX) and the Philadelphia Semi Index (SOX) for a few reasons: (1) they're both from Philly, (2) their symbols have the same letters, and (3) there's been talk of late of "swapping" OSX stocks for SOX stocks. Given the plethora of bullish charts in the energy complex, we're totally against swapping out of OSX-related stocks, and we want to continue adding to positions in these names. Until there is a meaningful reversal (the March-May correction was gut busting, but the stocks have come back beautifully) we figure it's a better idea not to punish the winners. The current environment is not an "either OSX or SOX" scenario. Rather, the current environment can support the "OSX is better, but SOX can participate" scenario." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • The VXO-down, yawn, another 5%, is about to edge into a "ten handle." As discussed in the morning vibe, this isn't a precursor to a decline but it's a warning label that should be affixed to any upside equation.

  • Snaps to the Spurs for strong teamwork and excellent ball movement.

  • "Put NDX 1535 on your radar as that print would form a bear trap pattern. Alternatively, coming under 1515 first would eliminate bear trap potential and bring the 1500 area into play." -- Pepe Depew on today's Buzz

  • Crude is back near $54/brl although, as long as the screens are green, you likely won't hear about it much in the mainstream media. Please note that OSX 145ish is a triple top and an all-time high for the drillers?

  • Driller? I don't even...

  • Tom McManus, the excellent strategist at BofA, has a year-end S&P price target of 1200. Sammy was so excited that he just spit up his Fresca!

  • Excitement levels are starting to uptick as we edge closer to Minyans in the Mountains in August. On top of the excellent financial discussions and the value of our shared network, there promises to be a whole lotta smiles as we enjoy Minyan Softball, Minyan Golf and, perhaps most intriguing, the Minyan S'Mores-a-thon at that Saturday night Red Barn soirée!

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