The prodigal roommate arrives!
"I still see things that are not here. I just choose not to acknowledge them. Like a diet of the mind, I just choose not to indulge certain appetites, like my appetite for patterns, perhaps my appetite to imagine and to dream."
--Professor John Nash, A Beautiful Mind.
Alright Alicia, here we go again. The bears are walking in circles, cigarettes dangling from their mouth, and wondering if the turtles (read: Snapper) are imaginary. You can't blame them for being paranoid --- the past thousand dips have been scooped up faster than chocolate ice cream. And as a result of getting smacked around and squeezed by the hand, Boo's crew is a shadow of their former selves.
I told soldier, aka Boo, that he'd better chill before the Minx administers another dose of shock therapy. If he reads the leaves, he's more likely to stumble upon something tangible. For instance, the breadth is 2:1 negative and that's been a pretty smart tell for the daily tape. Further, the (very) short-term support levels (S&P 992ish and NDX 1220ish) have now become (very) short-term resistance. Yes, Snapper could peek his beak out, but monitoring our main tells (while using technicals as a framework) always helps to define a strategy.
I'm also watching the financials trade begrudgingly lower and, as we know, these have been the cornerstone of market stability. I may have my own ideas as to why they trade dry, but at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter. Our job, broken down to its simplest form, is to buy low and make higher sales (or vice versa). The trick is to adapt your style without compromising your view -- something that's certainly easier said than done.
Away from that, I'm watching the OIH (Oil Service HOLDRs) and PPH (Pharma HOLDRs) as sector tells as they retest their breakout levels. While they're not "tape tells" per se, they do have a decent weighting in the broader averages and, as such, we must continually monitor them for signs of slippage/traction. In macro land, gold and the dollar are relatively unchanged and oil is giving a bit back (but still above $30/barrel).
Finally, I would like to once again offer that the views and opinions expressed in this morning's opening column are just that -- my view and opinion. People are conditioned to believe that what they read in the paper or see on television is factual (and, for the most part, it is). However, we started Minyanville as an educational community predicated on honest insights. I wasn't projecting my thought process unto you, I was simply offering another perspective.
Scotto Reamer will be swinging by for a lil' Sashimifest and, after that, I'll be tossin' on the chaps (NOT!) and headin' to the Alamo. So you know... and if you care Cowboy!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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