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The Ash Hole

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Fare ye well!

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Heartless powers try to tell us what to think
If the spirit's sleeping then the flesh is ink
History's page will thus be carved in stone
And we are here and we are on our own

(Grateful Dead)

So, Fokker, when WILL the ashes, ashes all fall down? When the least amount of people expect it, I suppose, and when there's a supreme confidence that every dip will be bought. As discussed, the conditional elements of a meaty sell-off are firmly in place. Thus far, however, the place of the conditional elements are firmer still. This has created an environment with substantial risk on both sides of the coin.

A faithful Minyan emailed me this morning to say "Toddo, please get hot again. The first three months of the year you were hot and I was making money also. The last three months, you have been cool (no offense) and I have lost a little money. Please get the mojo back again."

I'm not gonna argue with his assessment -- there's been a chilly breeze around these parts of late. However, as new citizens come to Minyanville every day, I thought that this would be a good time to reiterate our mission. This is NOT an advice site -- it's a community of learning and sharing. Our goal is to educate and inform, to add value to your process and help our fellow Minyans make better choices for themselves. This is an important point and one that needs to be stressed.

With that said (thanks for listening), I am growing increasingly concerned about the Minx. Yes, there's potential quarter-end agendas in play. Yes, Elmer has pumped in more liquidity than Pamela Anderson. Yes, they act great. However, if you were hibernating for a while and awoke to today's market, would you be a buyer or a seller? Hmm... potential systemic risk seeping out of the government-sponsored enterprises, the second half is knocking at the door with nary a sign of economic recovery, tech giants telling you there's no discernable uptick in demand, there's a historic disparity between bulls and bears and a record amount of insider's are selling their holdings.

YES! The ability to shrug this off IS bullish and thus far, there's been more shrugs than Jack Lalanne. My point is that there are a whole heckuva lotta reasons for this market to melt and nobody seems that concerned. I know -- I've been saying this for a while -- but that doesn't mean that it can't or won't happen. I offer my thoughts with one single intention: to help my fellow Minyans make better decisions. That doesn't mean we can't tack on another X% on the upside. If you're gonna play it that way, however, you should be well aware of the risks.

Now, having purged myself, lemme say that this tape -- for whatever the reason -- doesn't seem to give a schnitz (yet). Breadth is still positive, the horsies (big cap tech) have an underlying bid and, chances are, the short base prolly grew today. I would sum it up like this: They should be lower, they could be lower and they would be lower if there wasn't an agenda in play. I don't know what that is -- and I certainly don't know how long it lasts -- but we all see it.

I'm gonna juggle my hats and tickle some flicks so lemme take this time to say goodnight. We've got Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq) the killer whale tonight and a whole mess of economic numbers in the ayem so trade smart into the closing bell. As you know, I'll be scooting to the Alamo tomorrow afternoon (and will be out on Monday) so let's see if we can end this week with some jingle in our jeans. If not? Keep it in perspective and try to smile. Happiness should never be a function of your P&L.

Have a peaceful evening.
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