By Todd Harrison Jun 11, 2003 11:21 am
Did you see Hoofy's milk moustache?
We sit in the car outside your house
I can feel the heat coming 'round
I go to put my arm around you
And you give me a look like I'm way out of bounds
Let's see, Dell (DELL:NYSE) is cautious on I.T. spending, Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE) has potential accounting issues, Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE) and Motorola (MOT:NYSE) blow, Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) says it faces significant challenges, IBM (IBM:NYSE) is the subject of an S.E.C. probe, the Investor Intelligence bull/bear skew is at historic proportions and we haven't seen anything this top heavy since Anne Nicole Smith posed in Playboy. What gives?
In a word: Liquidity. This tape smacks of structural influences and, as we've learned in the past, these types of moves can be independent of technical or fundamental undertones. There is certainly something to be said about the Minx's ability to digest bad news and climb a wall of worry -- there's no rationalizing that. It'll work until it doesn't and, as we know, the lion's share of tigers and bears have stopped trying ot fight it.
When will it end? I wish I could tell you for sure but when it does, we'll look back at the wall of worry and see the obvious writing. That's little solace for those who haven't participated in this move but what's done is done and we must look forward. The last thing you wanna do is put yourself in a position to get double whammied. That doesn't mean you can't play -- just don't play blindly. Remember, near downside inflection points, the prevailing sentiment is "let 'em go higher and I'll short 'em." I'm hearing a lot of the opposite right now as the manic panic continues.
Looking at today's tape, the breadth in the S&P (thus far) continues to impress. That, coupled with the action in the financials, is putting grist in the Minxy mill. It's an impressive performance in the face of the recent news and the looming quarter-end is likely helping it along. Respect the price action (don't defer to it) and map out a plan before stepping on the field.
In Minyanville news, I gotta give up some snaps to the new columnists. They represent everything that we're trying to accomplish and have done a bang up job. When we created this community, we made a conscious decision to make it as inclusive as possible. If you're a faithful Minyan and want to support the cause, please swing by Main Street and pick up some of our awesome attire, attractive art or killer cookies. The critters would be most appreciative!
Hope y'all are hittin' 'em hard.
position in msft, spx
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