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Random Thoughts

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Two out of three for Afleet Alex?

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  • Look forward, not back. That's where the profits are.

  • Is Jazzy Jeff the modern day urban equivalent of Art Garfunkel?

  • General Motors (GM)-up 10% on the UAW vibes-is lending 25 handles to today's Dow Jones.

  • Is Hewlett's PC business on the block?

  • NYSE breadth is steady today despite the negative influence from the bunk bonds.

  • Pepe's vibes from the land of X's and O's:

    • duPont (DD), added to JP Morgan's focus list this morning, is sitting on a crucial support area at 46. A move to 45 breaks a triple bottom and the trend line drawn from the August lows.
    • Ingersoll-Rand (IR) broke a quadruple bottom yesterday as well as a major trend line that stretches back to October 2002.
    • Amerada Hess (AHC) is right at the March and April highs, similar to where Noble (NE) was before yesterday's breakout. A move for AHC to 104 clears the resistance hurdle.
    • Varian Semiconductor (VSEA) is on my screen setting up for a potential triple top break at 42. Support comes into play at 38, then 35.


  • The SOX (450), HGX (520), DJIA (10,600), S&P (1200) and BKX (99.60) are all levels to monitor.

  • Mr. Jinx would never do such a thing!

  • I mentioned the homies on the Buzz this morning as Pepe and I were discussing it during last night's chat & chew. I said to him-and to Minyans today-that it "felt" like the HGX was gonna breakout before any potential shake-out. There are a multitude of variables, of course, including the fixed income action, industry fundamentals and "manic capacity." I'm not changing my long-term stripes-I harbor serious concerns-I'm simply trying to identify the path that we take to get there.

  • And I was trying to figure out why Meehan was wearing his Maradona jersey...

  • Keeping tabs on the psychology bubble.

  • Wasabi Minyan Rob Fraim?

  • "Assets in the Rydex Bond have reached a new all time high for the life of the fund--assets increased to over $200 million and have increased some $50 million in the last 2 days alone. With Bond cracking the 117-27 level (great support for the past week or so), it might be notable." -- MM David Fine.

  • "PLACES considered spiritual seem invariably to be beautiful, and Ojai, Calif., is no exception."

  • Phil "my pockets" Erlanger opined on the Buzz that the trannies may be in for some turbulence. To quote "We would concur with Jeff DeGraaf that the Transports and specifically the truckers are in trouble. They have dropped to a rank of 130 out of 139 groups in our work, yikes! The only consolation could be a crowded short position in these names as their short intensity has risen from 37% in February to 58% as of mid May. A great theme on the long side for 2005 has been to find short positions where the shorts are greedy, overstay their welcome and are forced to cover. Truckers could be another example if the fundamentals improve through the summer."

  • Hump? What Hump?

  • Rumors of hot potato funerals may be somewhat premature.

  • The VIX fix.

  • Speaking of Ojai, if your firm would like to sponsor Minyans in the Mountains II and brand yourself alongside our fiscal literacy mission, please let us know. We're all about community in the city of critters and the company we keep is a reflection of ourselves.

  • "Though the Fed Chairman seemed as cautionary as I remember about our profligate ways, the tone for the here and now was enough to relieve markets of near term angst. Without the minutes in hand, I recall a statement similar to the "don't worry be happy" tune, where his vast experience has taught him that for all the times in his career, we have been on the precipice, we have somehow "figured it out". Printing money on his watch has saved us from the precipice several times if only what will prove temporary. One key to the economy figuring it out, is the ability of the free market to act unbridled. Let ingenuity, hard work and the human spirit operate without restriction, and indeed the tide will be raised for all boats. Provide intervention under the guise of "guidance" from the state, and we saddle the very process that provides the remedy." -- Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers

  • These slow summer months-and haphazard volatility-can be tough to stomach at times. Managed expectations, proactive patience and consistent discipline remain our staunchest allies as we truck through the muck.

  • Fare ye well towards the afternoon bell.


    R.P.
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