By Todd Harrison Jun 10, 2005 8:21 am
Keep an eye on DJIA 10,600!
Breathe, breathe in the air.
Don't be afraid to care.
Leave but don't leave me.
Look around and choose your own ground.
Our fatherly Fed figure arrived yesterday and offered a steady hand in critter land. The vernacular was consistent--in a roundabout way--as he wiggled his way from the corner and left the door open for future hikes. While alotta folks were hoping for an actionable edge, the message was obtuse from an application standpoint. I openly opined that hawk sightings would cause a stir--to NDX 1500 and DJIA 10,400 for starters--but the path of maximum frustration ran right through my station.
Through some honest "eyes," the action was impressive as we were ripe for a gripe. The brokers (and financials in general) traded great, the semis sprinted into Intel (and towards the triple top at SOX 450), the homies seem intent to bridge their bubbles, corrections have been rotational and the digestion has allowed the tape to self-correct as a function of time rather than price. In short, everything that Hoofy could have hoped for has occured on the back of the two month jig.
Last night, over Shun Lee and during the NBA finals, we had an abbreviated Pepefest at Chez Harrison. One of the reasons we're jacked to have Kevin Depew in the hallowed halls is that he brings a balanced and unemotional perspective to Minyan mix. Point & Figure methodology isn't an absolute science but it's a framework with which to view the dew. I followed Dorsey Wright since my early Morgan days and I continue to feel that there's value in integrating that process into our metric assimilation.
I'm not gonna crib his content as that would leave him high and dry for his morning vibe. However, while we officially fell off the Minyan weight wagon, he casually mentioned that his critter compass was pointing higher in all three time frames (short-, intermediate-, and long-term). There is some downside wiggle room in our immediate future, he allowed, but the burden of proof seems to have shifted back to Red Dye. That aligns with some potential structural underpinnings from corporate bond land and is worthy of both mention and respect.
Pepe and I also share a common groud in our big picture concerns. It's hard not to notice the housing mania, debt dependence or compression that surrounds us daily. It's also quite apparant that a disconnect exists between what we see and what we're told. We're constantly assured of the ecomonic expanision and surrounded by active agendas on the Street and in the media. After a while, when the action doesn't validate our concerns, we condition ourselves to believe that it simply doesn't matter anymore.
Perhaps it's me, but it seems to be increasingly difficult to remain lucid in an environment with so many conflicting crosscurrents. Succo and I call it the great "mind suck" as the effort absorbs energy and leaves us with fumes for the weekend. It's not easy, I know, but the onus is on us to stay focused and disciplined as we forge our path. The trick (from where I sit) is to identify a path of profitability while understanding that the ultimate destination may not be a pleasant place. Our hope is that by chillin' in the 'Ville, you'll have the perspective and insight to be mindful of that mission.
Good luck today.
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