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Buzz & Banter



If the S&P 500 (cash) does not violate today's intraday high or low, then today will mark one of the smallest ranges in years.

Looking back over the past few years, the 20 lowest-range days in the S&P were followed by a day with an average range of 2.5 times that of the narrow-range day. That means tomorrow, we should NOT expect another day like today... in fact, history would suggest we look for a range of at least 15 points or so. Also, the day following the narrow-range day tends to close in the same direction as the day before the narrow-range day (about a 60% chance).

So, this would suggest that we look for a pickup in volatility tomorrow, with a slightly better chance that tomorrow will be negative than positive (all else being equal).

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