The Starting Rotation
What happens to all the bulls who got long "because they act so well" if we start to spill?
Don't fly, mister blue bird
I'm just walking down the road
Early morning sunshine
Tell me all I need to know
Well, my friends, the Minyans of summer have spoken and their all-time top five ballplayers is in the book. With that said, does anybody else find it curious that the Joe D, Hank and the Mick didn't get a nod? I'm not sure who I'd boot off the list (I don't wanna start a Rolling Stones type controversy) but is any list complete without those guys? Mr. Roque, you're a big fan... any thoughts?
Turning our attention between the Minxy lines, the action (thus far) today is fairly constructive. The most bullish thing on my eight screens is the breadth, as there are two winners for every loser on the big board. Even tech is exhibiting some positive internals despite the Red Sox. Those readings, combined with an ability to shrug off bad news, are emboldening the bull camp.
So, Mr. Allman, does that mean that the chirping birds are on the way? That depends on many things, not the least of which is your time frame. There are a lotta balls in the air right now and there are legitimate reasonings for both sides of the coin. The more rational argument (in my opinion) can be made for the bear camp, as cracks in the foundation have emerged (after a spirited sprint). That doesn't mean I'm right and it certainly doesn't mean it's today's business. The truth is, the "right" answers will only be found with the benefit of hindsight.
I was just gonna point out the series of higher lows (intraday) but as I tickle my keyboard, an air pocket took out that pattern. It's quite thin out there and there's a lot of pressing and guessing in motion. On slow, drifty days like this, that type of reactive trading can cause a death by 1,000 paper cuts. Don't trade just to trade -- be smart, and remember that the casino has the staying power.
Along those lines, there's a fair amount of angst among my brethren and I'll say it again, Will Hunting, it's not your fault! This business has changed drastically in the last decade and, unfortunately, the weeding out process will likely continue for some time. Our industry, like many others, is mired in overcapacity and that excess will likely take years to absorb. I don't wanna be a downer -- trust me -- but if you're gonna walk the path, you should understand that it's gonna be a long road.
On a brighter note, it's a beautiful summer day and you've only got two hours left before we can turn our attention to the important stuff. If your mood is tied directly to the S&P futures, you've got some attitude adjustments to make. We're all guilty of it at times (living to work) but it's important to remember that, while we're bound to trip at times, we mustn't fall.
Good luck into the close.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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