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Random Thoughts


Emotional? Not I, said Todd, I'm simply trying to use price to my advantage.

  • If recent market history is a guide--and asset classes trade "monolithically' vs. the dollar--the smeltage in the metals, coupled with the early traction in the greenback (+65 bips), was an initial headwind for equity bulls. Alas, as the morning wore on, the dollar gave back all its gains and is currently straddlin' the flat line.

  • Market breadth is doing the "what, me worry?" thang so far, flexing 2:1 internals as we edge over the hump.

  • S&P 1280 is the obvious hurdle for Hoofy & Co. I would 'think' that some short-side stops reside on the other side of that ride.

  • The east is tough but the west is the best. I gotta think the winner of the left coast championship will run past their east coast counterparts.

  • In the absence of water, people are so thirsty that they'll drink the sand. Some would argue that they don't drink the sand because they're thirsty---they drink the sand because they don't know the difference.

  • Gooooooooooal! Brazil is warming up for the World Cup by slinking 2% higher.

  • Dry powder is your friend when trading. And I used some of my personal powder to nibble anew on some downside disconnects in the metal arena out of this morning's gate. Goldcorp, Golden Star and Pan American are among them and, as you know, I "buy to sell" as I trade around some cores. Emotional? Not I, said Todd, I'm simply trying to use price to my advantage. I purged my long-term holdings because the frolic was parabolic. With the flip officially switched, my lid has followed suit.

  • The risk? Yes, there are plenty of risks. A) The multi-year trendline is a good 15 handles away (CRB 327), B) my friend Helene Meisner notes some short-term dandruff in that very same commodity proxy, C) there's that structural debt thing, D) a stronger dollar won't have many asset class friends.

  • The other side of my personal wishbone today? The piggies, which are hanging with Mr. Cooper above BKX 108. And that's OK--in a perfect (disciplined) world, metal bulls should embrace weakness and piggy bears should want higher prices.

  • White light to Minyan Stephen Nags and our good pal Sal. May peace be with you.

  • What do you get when you combine a stiff neck and an overly aggressive personal trainer? Pain. I've gotta turn my entire body to scan the six screens to my left. But you know what? It could be worse...

  • Some feel good reading on the housing bublet.

  • The drillers, who listened to some chin music early on, are trying to make Snapper proud as crude grinds back towards the flat line. And yes, I think hurricane season will start to get loud as we edge closer to the Caribbean Queens.

  • There's something strange, in the neighborhood. Who ya gonna call? Dan Aykroyd!

  • Beeks will be active tomorrow morning as he releases the orange crop report (read: payrolls). In a "data dependent" tape--and a crowded/thin one to boot--expect and respect the potential for outsized moves. Remember Minyans, the risk profile you go home with is the one you'll wake up with. My personal litmus test has always been "Up 2% or down 2%--how am I lookin'?" You should never be in a position of hope, particularly when it comes to your hard earned coin.

  • R.P.
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position in gg, gss, paas, financials, drillers
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