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Minyan Mailbag: Batting Out of Turn


Speak for yourself!


Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove intimidation from the financial markets and encourage an interactive dialogue among the Minyanship. We share this next column with that very intent.

On the edge of our seats in this part of Minyanville dying to hear what Mr. Succo has to say about Richard Fisher's remarks.

Note: in case you missed it, on CNBC just now a commentator said he thinks Dallas Fed President Robert Fisher spoke out of turn - way out of turn and not according to the Fed / Greenspan plan - at least in the communication / and or jawboning, etc vein. What do you think?

Minyan Jerry


I don't really pay attention to comments made by any of these guys. I look at results.

Despite negative (and now zero) real interest rates over the last few years, and despite every major central bank around the world printing money (and debt), the forces of deflation (and stagflation) persist. If deflation / stagflation have even only a 20 percent chance of worsening, people need to stay completely away from stocks (not advice).

As an example of the implications, many pensions are still under funded and assuming an average of an 8% return on assets. Low interest rates make that assumption silly. Pensions need higher stock prices to bail them out and they won't get them if deflation takes root.

I do believe the Fed when they say they will do whatever they have to in order to stave off deflation. I just don't believe they can guarantee it. My odds are higher than 20 percent.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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