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Random Thoughts


  • Contrary to widespread rumors circulating around the street, my picture was not taken from the J-Date site.

  • Everything I'm looking at--save the volume--is pointing higher. Given the thin and whippy backdrop--and the fact that structural shoes abound--my style of choice for active risk remains "rolling stops." It's not for everyone, I know, but risk definition (both ways) is the only thing that will keep you in the game.

  • "The PHLX Oil Service Index (OSX) is creeping closer to a new, longer-term buy signal at 136. The drillers have gotten, er, drilled over the past few weeks since failing at multiple resistance in the 144 area, but momentum on a weekly basis has now turned back in their favor. Professor Dingmann was a few weeks ago looking for another 10 percent selloff in oil prices. This morning crude is edging higher toward a new buy signal at 52.50. Perhaps Professor Dingmann has some words of wisdom for us on the fundamental front as we find the energy complex poised for potentially important technical changes." -- Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • White light to the Macke's and McGuirk's as they focus their energy on the important stuff.

  • "The short-term charts are extended with momentum divergences in place, but the bullish aspect is that the overbought condition is likely to resolve itself through time, not so much through price. That condition has seeped into the daily charts as our price proximity indicator has moved into minor overbought territory. It's not a big concern because it's usually forced to diverge at more meaningful peaks. We remain concerned about the internals, but it's not enough to fight the tape. Our informant elevates the confusion and thickens the plot by creating bullish conditions for bonds with the 10-year yield now below 4%. No doubt, they have long-term support at 3.96%, but his message is clear on direction, vague on implications." -- Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers

  • Whataya say, BCA?

  • I still can't figure out if frogs have shins. You would think so, right?

  • If you Googled "nice eyes," you'd likely find a picture of Dr. Jon Najarian.

  • There's a very fine line between stickin' to your conviction and "not letting an opinion get in the way of making money." That chasm is our task at hand and why trading remains more of an art than a science.

  • Minyan David Fine is indeed master of his domain.

  • Sector spotlight? The piggies have poked through the 200-day (BKX 99.55), the homies are rollin' towards all-time highs (HGX 520ish), the XBD (brokers) and DJIA look like reverse dandruff, the cyclicals are about to probe the 200-day (CYC 731) and the NASDAQ is eyeballing COMP 2100, a level that failed in January, February and March.

  • "Bond yields dropping, 2s/10s spread falling, inflation (ISM prices paid) coming down and stocks getting the bid. The Goldilocks economy right? Low inflation, Fed pumping money, all is well in the world of financial speculation. Folks have been surprised at the reaction of markets today. Perhaps this is one of the 'reasons'...``We're clearly in the eighth inning of a tightening cycle. We have the ninth inning coming up at the end of June, we feel strongly we have been getting good fast hard pitches right down the pipe." - Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher this AM." -- Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz.

  • This explains the upside action in Pfizer of late!

  • Crude is up a deuce (2%), Brazil is up 2.5%, equities rippin', bonds en fuego...and the dollar is higher?

  • Can we see a trap door today? We can see anything when the tape as thin as it is. I'm carefully watchin' the breadth during these mini-pullbacks for signs of slippage and, thus far, there's been nary a blink. Understand, however, that if we get a sell program, the slippage will likely be "futures led" and the action will precede a turn in the breadth. Not a "high" probability (tapes that are strong all session tend to end that way) but with NASDAQ 2100 above and alotta brazen bulls around, please allow for the possibility.

  • Jinxy has issues.

  • Less than three months to Minyans in the Mountains II. It's gonna be one stone cold groove! Remember, Minyans, you can be our guest in Ojai simply by spreading the critter vibe!

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