May peace be with you!
Babe I'm leaving, I must be on my way
The time is drawing near
My train is going, I see it in your eyes
The love, the need, your tears
The afternoon strangle is starting to dangle as the critters dig deep in search of an angle. The post-Memorial Day action was unremarkable for the better part of the session but the ticks have begun to flicker a bit quicker. There is only one way to spin the spike in crude as a positive and that's if the Minx shakes it off and rallies (in the face of bad news). That hasn't happened (yet) and while the damage has been contained for the most part, I think it's safe to say that this is a pretty important close.
The jury is still out regarding whether this recent (low volume) rally was a simple alleviation of the previously oversold condition or the start of a more substantial leg higher. I am attending the former camp but have the utmost respect for my color war opponent. Perception is reality--this we know--and LOTS of folks got aboard the Matador City express recently. That could prove self-fulfilling as we edge into a historically strong month (during an election year) but it has also ratcheted up the risk (as a ton of bears covered last week).
The Minx is dippin' and tippin' as I write and it'll be interesting to see how much conviction the bulls have at lower levels. It may be premature to mention the May lows but keep in mind that everyone--and I mean everyone--is leaning against those levels (on the long side). There's a lot of trading between now and then, mind you, but it's certainly something that should be monitored if it edges closer. In other words, feel free to enjoy the movie but it never hurts to notice where the emergency exits are.
Tomorrow is a quiet day on the catalyst calendar before the schvitz hits the trading fan Thursday (Intel (INTC:NASD)) and Friday (Beeks). That, of course, doesn't mean it's gonna be a cake walk (what IS a cake walk anyway?)--with oil spoilin', a countdown to the handoff and the Elmer rate debate in full swing, June promises to be chock full of fun. Keep your eyes open and your right hand up, Minyans, and we'll wade our way through the muck together.
I'm gonna hop onto a 3pm call and spend the rest of the session with the boys on the Buzz. I sincerely hope that you're settlin' back into your digs and finding your groove. Balance and perspective will differentiate your performance so take a deep breath and let's drive this baby home.
Good luck into the close.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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