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Random Thoughts


Dull tape?

  • Getting there is just as important as being there.

  • Auto Pilot?

  • Ameritrade (AMTD) (+20%) and E*Trade (ET) (+5%) collectively make up 19% of the XBD. While the online components are skewing the spotlight, it's worth noting that we're back at XBD 144ish. This was the monster support that, when breached, paved the way to the Red Dye fray.

  • You're going the wrong way!

  • Citigroup (C)--testing resistance with toppy stochastics--remains an uber-tell for the trading swell.

  • "Last week provided some follow-through from the reversal seen a week ago Friday, but to this point the strength has been nothing more characteristic of a bounce, though a bounce that we believe has more room. The most compelling chart from the long-side of equities in our opinion is the Commitment of Trader's data on the NDX. While the commercials have eased off of their aggressive long exposure, it remains elevated on a historical basis, and suggestive of an additional advance. The same bullish condition exists for Treasuries, and though the weakness on Friday around the strong employment data took its toll on the 10-yr, commercials remain steadfastly long (though reduced from levels seen 2-3 weeks ago)." -- Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers.

  • This should make for a stiff fine.

  • "So far, the DJIA has hit a brick wall at its 200-day moving average (10,380). This week should decide if it will be an upside breakout or just another fake-out. We, however, will be watching the developments from New York City." -- Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James

  • Market internals aren't giving a wink either way although they're starting to adopt a more constructive posture (3:2)

  • Keep that Google (GOOG) gap in the back of your mind ($215-$205).

  • Minyanville will always offer asylum to critters hoping to escape the confines of reality.

  • Well, make that most critters...

  • The ability not to trade is often as important as trading ability.

  • While I'm unsure of the structural implications of Captain Kirk's General Motors (GM) bid, a migration away from $31 (either way) will likely have a psychological impact.

  • There is nothing wrong with a little pizza on our time.

  • "At two race tracks interviewers questioned 69 horse players on their way TO the $2 window and 72 others on their way FROM the window. The interviewers asked all bettors to rate their chances of winning on a scale of 1 to 10. The result was that the bettors returning from placing their bets had significantly MORE confidence in their choices than those interviewed BEFORE their bets were made. Thus, bettors facing doubts as to whether they had bet on the right horse relieved their tension by believing even more after the fact that they had done the right thing." -- "Cognitive Dissonance" by William A. Kent, The Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (thank you Jeff Saut).

  • Consolidation on the execution side of the trading business is intuitive as margins compact and competitors dig in.

  • Mondays are usually tough as we edge back into the working mindset. Take it easy on yourself and don't force risk. Edges will emerge in time-the trick is to be in a position to prosper when they get here.

  • We've set up an uber-Succo-Saut-Shobin-Dwyer-Reamer-Fish-Roque-Santoli-fest for Wednesday night that should be a good primer for Minyans in the Mountains II. We'll have more details on the Santa Barbara fete (August 18th-21st) in the upcoming weeks. Wasabi!

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