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Mary Poppins


From our family to yours--please be safe and healthy.


Ice is forming on the tips of my wings
Unheeded warnings, I thought I thought of everything
No navigator to guide my way home
Unladened, empty and turned to stone

(Pink Floyd)

So here we are, giggling and wiggling through another week when, out of nowhere, Snoop Tone bounced through our front door! Hello Dean Dwyer, that's one heckuva pink polo you're sportin' there bro! I gave my brother a hug, settled into my turret when -- shocker times two! -- Dr. Fleckenstein rang! As the three of us chatted, the critters joined the fray and we had a good ol' fashioned Minyanfest. It went a little something like this:

Hoofy: It's good to see ya Tone but I'm gonna tell you for the last time, stop staring at Daisy! Roll your tongue back into your mouth, wipe that saliva off your chin and focus on the tape!

Boo: Don't be so lactose intolerant, Hoofy, he's just looking! Besides, you've got bigger fish to fry. The banks have (thus far) failed to take out BKX 800 and the semis seem to be having issues at SOX 350. Further, this isn't exactly a robust volume day and the flow I'm seeing isn't dominated by buyers -- it's just a sellers strike.

Snapper: There ya go again -- looking for the cracks in the sidewalk. The breadth has been constructive all day, we're seeing a healthy intra-market rotation (into tech) and there's no follow through on the sell side. Maybe if Toddo found you a main squeeze you wouldn't be such a bitter critter. Oops -- bad joke!

Tony: (eyes fixated on Daisy) Did somebody say SPANKING! You want to see a textbook case of mental masturbation? The NDX and S&P is plus/minus for the week and everybody's spinning their wheels trying to state a case. There are plenty of opportunities on the rotation trade (sectors) and individual names (stock picking) but too many traders are focused on indices.

Toddo: (handing him a tissue) Good point Snoop, this is a market of stocks and not a stock market. However, from a tape perspective, next week should offer more clues on the earnings front. Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE), Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq), Computer Sciences (CSC:NYSE) and Network Appliance (NTAP:Nasdaq) report Tuesday, Federated Department Stores (FD:NYSE), Tiffany (TIF:NYSE), Analog Devices (ADI:NYSE), Bea Systems (BEAS:Nasdaq), Brocade (BRCD:Nasdaq) and Computer Associates (CA:NYSE) are on Wednesday while Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and Kohl's (KSS:NYSE) paint the tape Thursday.

Sammy: Yes, Toddo, and don't forget about Beeks. With the seeds of deflation planted by Elmer, traders will have an ear to the economic ground. Retail sales (exp. .2%) is on Wednesday, the Empire Manufacturing (exp. -8.5%), Biz Inventories (exp. .2%), the PPI (exp. -7%), Industrial Production (exp.-.4%), Jobless Claims (exp. 425,000), Capacity Utilization (exp. 74.5%) and the Philly Cheese steak (exp. -4) is on Thursday an the CPI (exp.-.1%), Housing Starts (exp. 1750k) and the University of Michigan Confidence (exp. 87.5) is on Friday.

Daisy: Sounds like you're gonna get busy, baby! Don't forget to drink your protein!

Dr. Fleck: A smart guy once told me that you can pick the direction or you can pick the timing but you'll rarely nail both -- especially when it comes to the macro environment. I'll tell you one thing, team, I sure am looking forward to teaching at the University!

Toddo: And we're psyched to have you Doctor! From a metaphorical standpoint, I put a couple of appendages in my bear costume (50% conviction on the short side) at these levels and I'm likely gonna spend the weekend half-dressed. I respect the tenor -- they ACT great -- but I'm still in the camp that we'll see lower prices. While the world will likely view them as corrective in nature (if and when), we'll take a fresh look when it happens. In the meantime, allow me to wish Carole and Dorthory the happiest of Mothers Days!

I told the crew that we had to finish up our little chat as I wanted to post in a timely fashion. I also told them to use the weekend to focus on family and the important stuff. This is a stressful business and if we don't find our balance, we'll liable to tip over. I also want to wish mini-Minyan Michael Dwyer good luck this weekend. Dude -- if the apple doesn't fall too far from the tree, you've got no worries pal.

Have a peaceful weekend.
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