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Random Thoughts


Just remember, Minyans, when both the BKX and XBD point in the same direction, it's a pretty telling sign.

  • I had a small Golden West position, which I was "trading around" with a short bias, and took a lil' lump on it this morning. No great shakes from a P&L standpoint but it highlights two points. First, defined risk saves alotta days and second, the smartest of the smart (a few gorillas I'm close with) aren't immune to blind spots or unforeseen shots.

  • Apple Computer, flagged last week, is trying to flake higher on the heels of the reverse dandruff pattern.

  • Citigroup $50, the oft-discussed acne level, now becomes the first area of support for the banking giant.

  • We spoke of "peace risk" last Wednesday and while we're far from a group hug in the Middle East , the prospect of such is likely weighing on the energy and metal space to start our weekly freak.

  • I guess, at a certain point, you've gotta take your victories when you can.

  • Uber-early morning breadth and mainstay "tells" are nondescript to start the weekly freak. Given the Friday smile and the looming FOMC mind meld (tomorrow), some back and fill today shouldn't come as a shocker. S&P 1315 will provide the first level of support if and, most likely, when.

  • Answers I Really Wanna Know...
    • Will the strong first half give way to a painful back nine?
    • Do you see the grabby greenback sneaking into Matador City ?
    • If it finds its footing--and squeezes the late-to-the-game dollar bears--how will asset classes react?
    • While the S's broke out on Friday, do you see the NDX pressed up against the downtrend line from the April high?
    • What will your book look like with a 5% rally? How about a 5% pullback?
    • If the dollar continues to lift, doesn't the latter seem entirely more intuitive than the former?

  • United Shakes? I shared some two-sided thoughts with Minyans last week, including a long-side try on Thursday and an abrupt punt on Friday. While the reasons for my "thanks but no thanks" turnaround were discussed (lotsa smoke, still universally loved by the analyst community, didn't trade well in a green tape), it's worth noting that the aforementioned long-term support is coming up quick. If Snapper is looking for a defined risk trade, he can set his stop on the other side of that line.

  • Meanwhile, in Pigs R' Us, the financials are in burp mode as they digest Friday's impressive gains. Still, and while they've certainly earned a rest, one would have thought that the brokers would trade better given the Monday merger mania. Just remember, Minyans, when both the BKX and XBD point in the same direction, it's a pretty telling sign.

  • I've offered that Canada offers a compelling case as an industrialized nation. You've got a government surplus, tons of natural resources and well, all sorts of hidden gems from our neighbors to the north.

  • I don't know what the details behind the Peter Goss resignation were but I would love to have Jack Bauer diggin' behind the scenes.

  • Keep Google on your radar as it edges towards its annual shareholders meeting. It saw some lift into last year's gaggle.

  • "Rotation out of high beta stocks continues to be a key concern for the market. The NDX has reversed down relative to the SPX before the last two major market corrections. February's bearish relative strength reversal in the NDX is being copied by sector indices such as the AMEX Biotechnology Index (BTK) and The Internet Index (DOT). This may reflect investors are getting more cautious about having exposure to high beta stocks, and that sector rotation may begin to reflect more defensive posturing. This has not benefited to the consumer staples sector as a whole yet, but we are encouraged by breakouts in stocks such as Anheuser-Bush (BUD), Playtex (PYX), and Sara Lee* (SLE ) which recently penetrated their 200-day moving averages." Katie Townsend, CMT, chief market technician for MKM partners.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: Kevin - Commercials getting VERY short crude as of the most recent COT report. I would also note that Crude Futures Open Interest is at an all-time high. Best, Minyan Adam

    Thanks, Adam. Also, note the DeMark sell signals we pointed out last week that have now registered in Crude Oil. See Adam's charts here and here.

    Kevin Depew on today's Buzz 11:17 am

  • Minyans are welcome to join MVHQ at "Band Together" this Thursday at The Knittting Factory. The concert begins at 7:30 pm and tickets are $20 a piece. Minyanville and the Ruby Peck Foundation will be sponsoring the event with proceeds to benefit Little Kids Rock.

  • R.P.
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