By Todd Harrison May 07, 2004 3:28 pm
Fare ye well into the bell!
Ice is forming on the tips of my wings
Unheeded warnings, I thought I thought of everything
No navigator to guide my way home
Unladened, empty and turned to stone
Well alrightee then--Siete de Mayo is shaping up as a whippy trip for the Minyan ship. The semis tried to lead the bovine breed but the breadth was the death of the Minxy Macbeth. Now we've got one dog looking that way, the other cat goin' splat and a whole heckuva lotta nerves frayed and betrayed. What to do? FOCUS--the decisions you make into the close will be the positions you wake up with on Monday.
We've been eagle eyed for signs of Scary Carrie and the anecdotal evidence--uniform weakness led by the liquidity driven small caps--isn't painting a pretty picture. And while the thin conditions and saucy semis have left a crack open for a Snapper cameo, it's hard to get giddy with the internals so...uh, weak. The banks are broken, the siclicals slippy, retail has turned tail, metals are smelting and bonds, pained bonds, are getting shaken and stirred.
Oversold you say? Boo will be quick to remind us that the most vicious legs of a melt (rip) occur during oversold (overbought) conditions (and we're far from a discernable disconnect). I don't know if that means we get waxed right here, right now--it's jittery and scattery--but the conditional elements we've been discussing for a mighty long time remain very much in play.
Beeks will be quiet during the early part of next week but he'll drop off the phantom PPI on Thursday. I'm not certain if the BLS has banished the remaining components to Corruptville but with the world on inflation watch, it'll be a big number for the Minx. We'll also have a spate of earnings including Cisco (CSCO:NASD) on Tuesday, Disney (DIS:NYSE) on Wednesday and Dell (DELL:NYSE) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) on Thursday. My sense continues to be that the structural elements are trumping fundamentals (and leading both technicals and the psychology) but we'll take each pitch as it comes down the pipe.
I'm gonna flip lids and focus on the close--it's getting a bit hairy out there. I'm fairly certain that nobody made as much as they could and lost more than they should have but that's the twin tail of capital. Just do the best that you can and be the person you'll be proud of. When the dust settles and we tally up our final P&L, that's all that really matters anyway.
Have a peaceful weekend.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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