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May Day!


Make me proud!


Wake up Maggie
I think I've got something to say to you
It's late September
And I really should be back at school

(Rod Stewart)

It's a busy morning in the city of critters but I wanted to sneak a quick missive out to my fellow Minyans. I'll make it short (no pun intended) as I know you're busy and time is of the essence.

Jeff DeGraaf, Lehman's astute technical sage, points out in his morning piece that the percentage of NYSE issues above their 200-day moving average is now above 70%. That's the highest level since May of last year and, before that, May of 2001. In techland, the reading is an astounding 85%! As he opines, that makes these levels a compelling sell OR we've entered the realm of a new bull market.

YOU make the call, Mon Frere, as you'll reap the benefits or shoulder the consequences. Me? You know where I stand. And while I've certainly been wrong before, it's my most honest read.

I've currently got one leg in my bear costume as I wanted to hear what Chambo had to say last night. I was planning on adding more appendages into further liftage and I still may have that chance. I want to watch the opening and see how they act and will likely add another leg at a point. What happens if I add a leg and we ramp even higher? I'll likely give it a bit of room (out of respect for the blow off potential) and eye the arms.

I'm keenly watching for sector rotation opportunities and, in that vein, will remain open minded for relative long side opportunities (consumers?). The market, as a whole, is extended and vulnerable (again, my humble opinion) but that doesn't mean there aren't opportunities both ways. Just as there are shorts during a bull phase, there are longs during a bear phase (if and when).

Tony penned a fine piece on the BKX and please take the time to read it. He's doing some great work and regardless of your big-picture bent, you always want to see every side of a trade. A while back, when the financials were heavy and pressed, I offered that I wanted to build short side exposure (via puts) into a hard rally. I've been early -- shocker there -- but despite the recent BKX 800 breakout, I think it's a flawed sector. Remember, that's "big picture thinking" and, as you know, it's not intended as advice. Just thinkin' aloud.

Finally, I'd like to make a Minyan call out to our faithful readership as we continue to grow our community. As you know, the University is launching soon and our kick-ass lineup will be offering free lessons. Please help us in spreading the word and, if you're able, take a stroll through Main Street and support the cause. Also, our all-star guitar auction is being coordinated and, if you haven't seen it, check this bad boy out. Wasabi!

See you after the opening.

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