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Random Thoughts


Have a happy Mother's Day!

  • It's choppy out there in this minxy affair as the bulls try to chase the once noble bears. When you think of everything we've seen this week--earnings, Elmer, Beeks, (debt) boots--it's no wonder we're a bit fried. The key, Mon Frere, is to remain lucid as we craft the risk-profile we'll live through the weekend with. Our double resistance remains right HERE and the aforementioned dynamic remains in play. However, as I added another appendage to the bear costume on the GM boot--and we've yet to see a reaction--I'm gonna humbly remove that arm and keep both legs in (50% conviction). With my stops sitting slightly above, one might ask why I would bother taking the arm out. The answer is easy: discipline." -- Today's Buzz, 10:39 EST

  • The race to the bottom line.

  • The piggies opened flat in the face of a green tape. That screamed "supply!" to me (particularly as the BKX "failed" at the 200-day yesterday) and the group has since slipped lower. The brokers, for their part, continue to outperform their piggish cousins. -- Today's Buzz

  • The sleeping bandit!

  • Mutual Fun!

  • Yes, back-to-back Randoms are a sign of a tired Toddo. I strive to keep the scribe alive but it gets tougher as we edge towards the end of a (very long) week.

  • "Energy was the only sector to advance Thursday, and curiously truckers (industry group) were able to top the list of group performers. Homebuilders caught a bid from the flight to safety trade as Treasuries remained well bid most of the day. From the commodity side, of the 33 commodities we track, Crude Oil has the 2nd highest intra-day volatility over the last quarter, second only to coffee. On average, a high to low move in Crude Oil for the day is 3.3%. High volatility (swings within a range) is often associated with topping formations, but there is very little follow-through on weakness." -- Lehman sage Jeff DeGraaf

  • What do you call male ballerinas?

  • Wanna read some Lance Lewis? He's set up a gratis trial for all Minyans. Simply go to his site and type in username: minyan and password: ville.

  • Meehan's dream date.

  • Nice try Sammy!

  • Can the dollar AND equities rally together? It hasn't paid to bet that way but with the greenback up 85 bips, it's certainly worth paying attention.

  • And just when you thought it was safe to fill up your gas tank...

  • "The birth-death estimate ("plug") number added 257,000 to the payroll estimate this month. That is up from 207,000 last April. The birth-death number is an estimate made by the BLS (Bureau of Labor Stats) in attempt to estimate jobs created by small business. It is an educated guess. It is made by assigning variables to economic growth. If economic growth last April was the same as growth this April, the b-d number should be just about the same. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2004 was 4.1%. GDP growth for this quarter is 3.1%. The birth-death estimate should have been lower this April than last April, but it was higher by 50,000. How did this happen? Magic?" -- John Succo on this morning's Buzz.

  • I would like to take a (personal) moment to wish my mother, Carole, and my grandmother, Margarita Maven, a seriously special Mother's Day. I love you both very, very much.

  • In Minyan news, we have three new columnists ready to step into our humble little town. I can't name names (yet) but I'm pretty sure that you'll dig their vibes. The dream continues to grow and for that, I offer my humble thanks to ye faithful. Without you, none of this would be possible.

  • Enjoy your journey into the weekend and for all Minyan moms, have a very special Sunday!

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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