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Morning Randoms


If they couldn't get 'em down on Junk, mayber there's hope for this funk?


  • Wanna start the Freak with a smile on your puss? Take a walk back to last summer, when Minyans roamed freely in the mountains of Crested Butte. Part one and part two await your tired eyes.

  • While the General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) puke wasn't a total shocker (GM basically dared the downgrade by not offering a proactive roadmap), the reverberations may cause a Jeff Goldblum size fly in our structural ointment. The spice to the mix is Captain Kirk and his sudden smirk. If Mr. Kerkorian wasn't aware that another shoe was about to drop, the serendipity of his tender timing was magically delicious.

  • A Charlie Charlie, oh oh, yeah we gotta go...

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Jeremy Siegel: price doesn't matter, 7% real returns by divine right. Ben Graham - the value of any investment is, and always must be, a function of the price you pay for it." Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James

  • All our problems are solved!

  • I entered yesterday's fray with two legs in my metaphorical fur (50% conviction on the short-side) as a function of Dow 10,400, NDX 1460 and BKX 99.20 (200-day) resistance. When the autos got whacked, I slipped another appendage into the fur (75% conviction) and 'thought' the wheels would fall off the wagon. They didn't, of course, and while I kept the costume overnight, I'm listening closely for the "can't get 'em down" chorus.

  • I'm a different man than I was five years ago. I'm not as wealthy-as measured by dollars-but my existence is much richer.

  • Mother Morgan!

  • A tradable bottom?

  • Oil of Oy Vey!

  • We have a few big announcements in the Minyanville pipeline that will include new professors, a structural "shift" and details regarding Minyans in the Mountains II (August 18-21st).

  • Get on the Buss!

  • Wanna cool the housing market? Let the dollar rally and remove the "30% off sale" for foreigners. Of course, most of our stateside demand driven asset classes would deflate as well but therein lies the true conundrum.

  • Turning on his poker buddies?

  • Jeff Immelt is on the tape this morning saying his company (GE) is "in great shape."

  • Ju got Ju got Ju got what I want!

  • Balance from the always snazzy and true blue friend Tony Dwyer:

    • The fundamental, geopolitical and equity market backdrop are very different than April 22, 2002 when WorldCom was moved from investment grade to high yield status.

    • Our thesis that the equity market correlates to the direction of earnings suggests any dislocation should be viewed as opportunity rather than something to fear given historical valuations.

    • We continue to believe our 2005 S&P 500 target of 1330 is likely conservative because earnings assumptions are likely overly conservative.

  • For the week ending May 4th AMG Data reported equity fund net cash inflows of $1.065 bln, though only 3,435 funds reported inflows and 4,161 reported outflows (largest number since Aug '04).

  • It's been a long week and I, for one, have the toothpicks under the eyelids already. The tone for today will be set when Beeks drops by for breakfast (non-farm payrolls exp. 174k) and then all eyes will shift to the litany of levels (as a backdrop) and our trading tells (for tenor). Only eight more hours till our requisite two-day respite, Minyans, so let's shake a tail feather and put some jingle in our jeans!

  • Enjoy your journey today.

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