Watch the volume!
I'm watching the following levels on the major indices: INDU: resistance 10378 (50 dma) /10453 and support 10270/10230. S&P 500: 1128.76 resistance (50 dma) and support at 1112. Comp resistance at 1980 and support 1937.32 (200 dma). NDX resistance at 1448.09 (50 dma) and support at 1411.86 (200 dma).
The biggest news of late (outside of the economy/Fed) is the move in oil. The AMEX Oil Index (XOI) climbed 1.17% - touching new highs at 628.16 and breaking thru the recent 4/27 top (623.53). The action leaves the index is now up roughly 11% for the year. The Oil Service (OSX) names had exerted leadership recently and made a + 10% move higher off the March lows. Yesterday, a downgrade initially drilled the group much lower - touching 100.95 intraday - before Snapper made an appearance and the group worked back, finishing at 103.66 (-1.77%).
The brokers (XBD) continue to hover at the 200 dma (129.67) - keep in mind they were a leadership group (along with the chips) off the March lows. Lehman Brothers (LEH:NYSE) is testing its 200 dma (74.98); Bear Stearns (BSC:NYSE) is at key support at 80; Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE) is at the 200 dma (95.96); Legg Mason (LM:NYSE) is at support at 90.
Speaking of the semi's, I continue to watch the trade in KLA Tencor (KLAC:NYSE), National Semi (NSM:NYSE), and Applied Materials (AMAT:NASD) for signs of traction/slippage after the recently soggy trade. The group is still off 12% from the April highs, the stochastics are oversold, MACD is oversold and twisting, and we're bumped up against the downtrend line - we'll see if negative sentiment overshadows the near-term technical elements.
The biotech's (BTK) continue to bounce between resistance at the 50 dma (536.63) / 540 and 520 support. Recent fliers, Genentech (DNA:NYSE) [bounced off support at 120], Celgene (CELG:NASD), and Imclone (IMCL:NASD) broke thru the upper range of their recent downtrends.
The dollar index (DXY) was off another 50 bps, testing its 50 dma at 89.09. The index, after testing the 200 dma (90.71) yesterday, is now off 185 bps from the recent 4/28 high. Note that the Philly Gold & Silver Index (XAU) was off 2.22%.
General Electric (GE:NYSE) continues to battle the 200 dma (30.49); Big Blue (IBM:NYSE), as a broader tech tell, acts awful; Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE), as a retail/consumer proxy, is teetering on support just under 56; and the REITs (RMS) edged thru and reversed thru the 200 dma (570.11).
Other events on the trading radar...
As always, we'll scan the action and highlight the relevant info as it all unfolds. If you want the real-time scoop on the market action - do yourself a favor and get yourself on the Buzz. Good luck.
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