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Freaky Friday Random Thoughts


It's been a long few weeks on a few fronts but we've gotta take the valleys with the peaks.

  • We've been eyeing the acne/reverse dandruff in the S&P all week and Hoofy has it in his bull's eye this morning. As past resistance becomes future support, the Matador Crowd will now lean against S&P 1315 if and when. Could it be today's business? It might, rabbit, it might--the euphoria was palpable on the opening bell. But as long as breadth stays buff (2:1) and the financials giggle green, it's up to Boo to turn the screws.

  • Speaking of which, keep an eye on the lug nuts in the semi space as they dabble near Red Dye.

  • No, I don't have selective memory, I'm simply learning as I go!

  • I nibbled on some United Healthcare calls for a quick schnitz yesterday as the stock eyed long-term support at $45. My thought process, as shared, was that long-term support loomed ($45) and some of the pressure coulda been a function of forced liquidation. Last night, discussing the trade with Professor Sedacca, we eyed the analyst community and their universal love for this stock (lotsa buys and strong buys, a negative in my eyes). This morning, given how it acted (flat) in the green seas, I punted my position, more or less where it was initiated. Why do I share this story? The process, pure and simple, as we mingle the market with our minds.

  • I still wanna know a lot of these answers!

  • One answer I do know is that writing is on the FOMC's wall. They're gonna let the dollar fall as far as the foreign holders of our debt will allow. The dollar index is gettin' hammered again (-75 bips) and that is likely spurring the equity herd.

  • Keep Google's analyst meeting on your radar as it giggled higher into this event last time 'round.

  • Cinco de Macke? Mr. Mandell's alter ego is chillin his heels at MVHQ as we edge towards the final hump of the week. I suppose he's hoping that Queen Vanessa will take him to Barney's for a lil' attire tweakin' but I told him that she's jammin' on MIM3 particulars.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag:

    "I can't shake the feeling that gold is on a secular bull run and will become a 'currency' alternative to both the US dollar and the Euro----and it may rally without the metal equities joining in. I know this sounds irrational but I can't get this idea out of my head. Am I going MAD? Canadian Minyan George M

    MGM Grand

    There are a few threads here so lemme try to noodle through 'em. We talk about the "dollar devaluation vs. asset class deflation" dynamic a lot. That, along with the "energy to metal baton toss," were two of the main tenets of my shpiel at MIM2. But it's not "that" simple, I know, as the equation is multi-linear with a lot of competing forces in play. While FOMC policy plays a huge role in the value of the greenback, the potential for debasing (away from dollar denomination) is legitimate possibility. Crude in euros? Crude in gold? Don't laugh--it's really not that funny--we aren't exactly the most popular nation in the world anymore.

    Regarding your second noodle, we had the "gold vs. gold stocks" discussion yesterday on the Buzz. I asked if a Bolivian style nationalization 'trend' would trigger the outperformance of the former to the latter. It might, but I would offer that it's all relative. I still believe, as I have for a few years, that energy and metal equities will trump their tech and financial cousins for quite some time. Energy, once the top dog in the S&P, will resume that title and metals, while uber-extended on a trading basis, is still viewed as an alternative asset class. I may be wrong, but those are my top line vibes.

  • I found myself noodling Ojai vibes yesterday as we ready ourselves for the upcoming Minyans in the Mountains retreat. The early-bird special will continue through the end of this month as Team MIM, led by Queen Vanessa, pays attention to the little details that make this mingle one of a kind.

  • Stocks that open flat or down in a green sea typically imply supply. In that vein, watch Kohls (KSS), Proctor (PG), Merck (MRK) and Dow Jones (DJ) and Newmont (NEM) as real-time examples of this dynamic.

  • Citigroup $50 remains a viable over/under for the financials and, by extension, the tape.

  • A crash course in crash courses?

  • What do you think Squeeze was doing when the wrote the lyrics to Pulling Muscles?

  • Being John Malkovich? If you haven't read Pepe's mind meld with Bill Gates, you're missing some brilliant content.

  • It's been a long few weeks on a few fronts but we've gotta take the valleys with the peaks. It's the journey of life, Minyans, and it's the grist of experience. Fare ye well into the bell and have a mindful May weekend.

  • R.P.
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